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Unformatted text preview: THE STATE OF FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION IN THE WORLD SAFEGUARDING AGAINST ECONOMIC SLOWDOWNS AND DOWNTURNS This flagship publication is part of THE STATE OF THE WORLD series of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Required citation: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2019. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2019. Safeguarding against economic slowdowns and downturns. Rome, FAO. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the World Food Programme (WFP) or the World Health Organization (WHO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP or WHO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. 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ISSN 2663-8061 2019 THE STATE OF FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION IN THE WORLD SAFEGUARDING AGAINST ECONOMIC SLOWDOWNS AND DOWNTURNS Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, 2019 CONTENTS FOREWORD METHODOLOGY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS KEY MESSAGES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY x Statistical tables to Part 1 xiii xiv 1.1 Recent trends in hunger and food insecurity 3 Methodological notes to statistical tables Methodologies Part 1 PoU change point definitions, methodology and country lists 165 ANNEX 4 46 Economic growth and change in PoU between 2011 and 2017 169 ANNEX 5 The main drivers of crisis-level acute food insecurity in 2018 2.1 Economic slowdowns and downturns 176 51 ANNEX 6 2.2 Commodity dependence and its relevance for food security and nutrition 61 2.3 Nexus between economic growth, poverty, and food security and nutrition: the role of inequality 79 Commodity dependence definitions and country lists 178 ANNEX 7 Glossary 185 2.4 Policies for achieving sustainable escapes from food insecurity and malnutrition in the context of economic slowdowns and downturns 102 2.5 Conclusions 159 ANNEX 3 27 PART 2 SUSTAINED ESCAPES FROM FOOD INSECURITY AND MALNUTRITION IN THE FACE OF ECONOMIC SLOWDOWNS AND DOWNTURNS 49 and their impact on food security and nutrition 148 ANNEX 2 1.3 Towards an integrated understanding of food security and nutrition for health and well-being 42 1.4 Conclusions 122 ANNEX 1B xvi 1 121 ANNEX 1A xi PART 1 FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION AROUND THE WORLD IN 2019 1.2 Progress towards global nutrition targets ANNEXES vii NOTES 118 | ii | 191 TABLES, FIGURES AND BOXES TABLES 1  Prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) in the world, 2005–2018 8 2  Number of undernourished people in the world, 2005–2018 9 3  Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity, and severe food insecurity only, measured with the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, 2014–2018 15 4  Number of people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity, and severe food insecurity only, measured with the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, 2014–2018 18 5  Association between food insecurity and various forms of malnutrition: cross-country analysis based on national data 6  Association between food insecurity and overweight or obesity in different age groups: micro-level data analysis from selected countries 44 45 7  Association between household food insecurity, child stunting and wasting, and anaemia in women of reproductive age: micro-level data analysis from selected countries 46 8  Economic shocks were significant secondary and tertiary drivers of food crises in 2018 60 9  High levels of commodity-export and -import dependence negatively affect food security 67 10  Government spending on social and health sectors and UHC coverage in high commodity-dependent countries 11  Coping strategies, their availability in times of economic slowdowns and downturns and possible negative effects A4.2  Regression of the change in PoU and economic growth between 2011 and 2017 78 12  Multisectoral policies for reducing poverty, and the constraints that must be overcome to improve food security and nutrition 116 A1.1  Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Prevalence of undernourishment, moderate or severe food insecurity, selected forms of malnutrition, exclusive breastfeeding and low birthweight 122 A1.2  Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Number of people who are affected by undernourishment, moderate or severe food insecurity and selected forms of malnutrition; number of infants exclusively breastfed and number of babies born with low birthweight 135 A2.1  Definition of variables and sources 160 A2.2  Definition of variables and sources 162 A2.3 Results 162 A2.4  Malnutrition indicators by age/sex class (dependent variables) 163 A2.5  Independent variables 164 A3.1 Countries with an increase in PoU change point corresponding to economic slowdowns or downturns, years 2011–2017 166 A4.1  Descriptive statistics of PoU and economic growth between 2011 and 2017 172 76 | iii | 173 A4.3  Regression of the change in PoU between 2011 and 2017 and the three drivers of PoU increase 174 A4.4a  Estimated coefficients of the regressions between the change in PoU (between 2011 and 2017) and the three drivers of PoU – drivers regressed separately for each income group 175 A4.4b  Estimated coefficients of the regressions between the change in PoU (between 2011 and 2017) and the three drivers of PoU – drivers regressed together for each income group 175 A5.1  Countries and territories with food crises in correspondence with economic shocks, 2018 176 A6.1  Definition of country commodity-export and commodity-import dependence 179 A6.2  Countries and territories by typology of primary commodity dependence (1995–2017) 179 A6.3  Countries with economic slowdowns or downturns in correspondence to an increase in PoU change point and/or affected by food crises 180 FIGURES 1  The number of undernourished people in the world has been on the rise since 2015, and is back to levels seen in 2010–2011 2  Undernourishment is rising rapidly in Western Africa 6 10 TABLES, FIGURES AND BOXES 3  Undernourishment increases sharply in countries affected by conflict in sub-Saharan Africa 4  Droughts are one of the factors behind the recent increase in undernourishment in sub-Saharan Africa 5  Western Asia is the only subregion in Asia where undernourishment is on the rise 10 11 12 6  Undernourishment is on the rise in Western Asian countries affected by popular uprisings in the recent past 12 7  Increasing undernourishment in South American countries is putting upward pressure on the Latin America and the Caribbean regional average 13 8  The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela shows a significant increase in the prevalence of undernourishment in recent years 13 9  Even though Asia still predominates, more than thirty percent of the undernourished in the world live in Africa 14 10  Over the past five years (2014–2018), total levels of food insecurity have been on the rise at the global level, mainly due to increases in Africa and Latin America 19 11  The concentration and distribution of food insecurity by severity differs greatly across the regions of the world 20 12  As the country level of income falls, the prevalence of food insecurity increases and so does the proportion of severe food insecurity over the total 21 13  The numbers of undernourished and of food insecure have been on the rise in recent years, after a decade-long decline in extreme poverty and undernourishment 22 14  In every continent, the prevalence of food insecurity is slightly higher for women than for men, with the largest differences found in Latin America (2016–2018 three-year averages) 23 15  Progress on malnutrition is too slow to achieve the 2025 and 2030 global nutrition targets 29 16  Stunting, wasting and overweight still impact the lives of far too many children under 5 years 30 17  Overweight prevalence increases over the life course and is highest in adulthood 33 18  Across all regions, the prevalence of overweight is increasing in all age groups, with particularly steep trends among adults and school-age children, including adolescents 34 19  The increase in prevalence of obesity between 2000 and 2016 has been even larger than that of overweight 35 20  The gap between urban and rural areas in mean body mass index is closing 36 23  Consecutive years of economic slowdowns and downturns since 2011 in many subregions 54 24  PoU increasing change points associated with the occurrence of economic slowdowns and downturns 55 25  Low-income countries face higher increases in hunger as a result of decreases in economic growth (between 2011 and 2017) 58 26  Commodity prices (though high) fell year on year from 2011 to 2016 63 27  Many low- and middle-income countries are high commodity-dependent countries 65 28  Between 2003 and 2017, high commodity-dependent countries faced steeper declines in economic growth compared to low commodity-dependent countries – for those with rising hunger the situation was even worse 66 29  Potential negative impacts of international commodity price reductions on food security and nutrition in commodity-dependent economies: transmission channels 69 30  Falling commodity prices triggered a devaluation of the Colombian and Chilean currencies 71 21  Examples of policies and programmes aimed at preventing or reducing overweight and obesity 39 31  Prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) and child stunting rates are correlated with extreme poverty at the country level 87 22  Real GDP per capita growth has been uneven since the 2008–2009 sharp global downturn 53 32  High levels of child stunting are not only found in the poorest households | iv | 88 33  Most of the world’s extreme poor now live in Africa, but the majority of the world’s hungry and children affected by stunting live in Asia 34  High and persistent levels of income inequality in low- and middle-income countries 3  Computing FIES-based estimates so that they are globally comparable 16 89 92 35   Income inequality is rising in nearly half the countries of the world, including in several low-income countries and some middle-income countries 93 36  Some countries have reduced income inequality, while for others it has worsened 37  Inequality in the distribution of agricultural land is high in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa 94 98 BOXES 1  Two indicators for SDG Target 2.1 to monitor progress on ending hunger and ensuring access to food for all 4 2  Revised series of estimates of the prevalence of undernourishment and projections for 2018 4  How do estimates of food insecurity compare to other important indicators of human development? 25 5  Different food security assessments for different objectives 26 6  Overweight and obesity and the effect of malnutrition throughout the life cycle 32 7  Risk factors for overweight and obesity in school-age children 38 8  Double-duty actions to address all forms of malnutrition in the context of humanitarian assistance 41 13  Explaining poverty and food security and nutrition trends in China and India: the pattern of growth and initial inequalities 82 14  Addressing inequality in the context of economic growth in Brazil – a way out of hunger and malnutrition 95 15  Increasing opportunities for indigenous populations is key to nurturing their dietary diversity 100 16  Gender dimensions of inequality in agriculture and rural areas 101 9  What are economic slowdowns and downturns? 52 17  Social protection is critical for food security and nutrition, especially during economic slowdowns and downturns 105 10  Why did world hunger not rise during the global food and financial crises? 18  Homegrown school feeding as a way to prevent undesirable coping strategies 106 19  Boosting small-scale farming for diversification and market integration in Sao Tome and Principe, and Senegal 111 20  Trade policy, food systems, and food security and nutrition 113 56 11  What is commodity dependence and how is it measured? 64 12  Economic slowdown and the cost of basic food in Colombia 7 | v | 73 TAJIKISTAN Fresh Tajik puff cakes being prepared as part of a project supporting inclusive agriculture and food security initiatives. ©FAO/Nozim Kalandarov FOREWORD The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development puts forward a transformational vision recognizing that our world is changing, bringing with it new challenges that must be overcome if we are to live in a world without hunger, food insecurit y and malnutrition in any of its forms. Recent editions of the report showed that the decline in hunger the world had enjoyed for over a decade was at an end, and that hunger was again on the rise. This year, the report shows that the global level of the prevalence of undernourishment has stabilized; however, the absolute number of undernourished people continues to increase, albeit slowly. The world population has grown steadily, with most people now living in urban areas. Technolog y has evolved at a dizzying pace, while the economy has become increasingly interconnected and globalized. Many countries, however, have not witnessed sustained growth as part of this new economy. The world economy as a whole is not growing as much as expected. Conf lict and instabilit y have increased and become more intractable, spurring greater population displacement. Climate change and increasing climate variabilit y and extremes are affecting agricultural productivit y, food production and natural resources, with impacts on food systems and rural livelihoods, including a decline in the number of farmers. All of this has led to major shifts in the way in which food is produced, distributed and consumed worldwide – and to new food securit y, nutrition and health challenges. More than 820 million people in the world are still hungr y today, underscoring the immense challenge of achieving the Zero Hunger target by 2030. Hunger is rising in almost all subregions of Africa and, to a lesser extent, in Latin America and Western Asia. We welcome the great progress seen in Southern Asia in the last five years, but the prevalence of undernourishment in this subregion is still the highest in Asia. Another disturbing fact is that about 2 billion people in the world experience moderate or severe food insecurit y. The lack of reg ular access to nutritious and sufficient food that these people experience puts them at greater risk of malnutrition and poor health. Although primarily concentrated in low- and middle-income countries, moderate or severe food insecurit y also affects 8 percent of the population in Northern America and Europe. In ever y continent, the prevalence rate is slightly higher among women than men. This is the third year that we have jointly produced The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World. It reaffirms our commitment to working together to overcome these emerging challenges and free the world from hunger, food insecurit y and malnutrition. With regard to nutrition indicators, we are faring no better. If current trends continue, | vii | FOREWORD FOREWORD we will meet neither the 2030 SDG Target to halve the number of stunted children nor the 2025 World Health Assembly target to reduce the prevalence of low birthweight by 30 percent. This year’s report warns that one in seven live births (20.5 million babies born globally) was characterized by low birthweight in 2015 – many of these low birthweight babies were born to adolescent mothers. The trends of overweight and obesit y give us additional reason for concern, as they continue to rise in all regions, particularly among school-age children and adults. The most recent data show that obesit y is contributing to 4 million deaths globally and is increasing the risk of morbidit y for people in all age groups. This year, importantly, the report notes that hunger has been increasing in many countries where economic growth is lagging. Strikingly, the majorit y of these countries are not low-income countries, but middle-income countries and countries that rely heavily on international trade of primar y commodities. Economic shocks are also prolonging and worsening the severit y of acute food insecurit y in food crisis contexts. Left unattended, these trends may have ver y unwelcome implications for malnutrition in all its forms. Moreover, we see that economic slowdowns and downturns disproportionally challenge food securit y and nutrition where inequalities in the distribution of income and other resources are profound. Our actions to tackle these troubling trends will have to be bolder, not only in scale but also in terms of multisectoral collaboration, involving the agriculture, food, health, water and sanitation, education, and other relevant sectors; and in different policy domains, including social protection, development planning and economic policy. We must recognize the importan...
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