Time Series project.docx - 1 PROJECT \u2013 STOCK PRICE FORECASTING Emirates Telecommunications Group Company PJSC 2 Introduction Emirates

Time Series project.docx - 1 PROJECT u2013 STOCK PRICE...

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1 PROJECT – STOCK PRICE FORECASTING Emirates Telecommunications Group Company PJSC
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2 Introduction Emirates Telecommunications Group Company PJSC, "Etisalat," is an organization that runs telecommunications services in the United Arab Emirates both to individual customers and corporates. Most of its revenue is earned via mobile communication as well as fiber optics. The company has its headquarters in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates and its stock is listed at the Abu Dhabi stock exchange market. We have obtained data from the AbuDhabi stock exchange relating to the stock prices of Emirates Telecommunications Group Co PJSC from the year 2017 January to 2019 September. The prices represent points of time series and they vary as both regular s well as random components. For this reason the rules of time series provide that the changes of the data points in the series can be forecasted. The data analysis will be done by Microsoft excel and all parts of the exponential smoothing explained in detail. We intend to generate the major development trend and forecast the prices of stock for the last three months of the year 2019; namely October, November and December. Based on the dynamics of the time series data, especially with the fluctuation of Emirates stock prices, I have chosen Exponential Smoothing as the statistical analysis alignment tool to be used. In this method we shall obtain exponential functions and use them to assign exponentially decreasing weights appropriately over time. The Exponential Smoothing technique is a commonly used forecasting method because it is more realistic and gives better forecasts of the intended data. The method uses weighted averages and accounts for fresher data more than older data in assigning priority. This implies that using latest data will result in the most reliable forecasts for the stock prices of Emirates Telecommunications Company.
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3 Data Visualization and Error Measurements
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