Chapter 3

# Chapter 3 - Pg 104 Question#1 Here we want P{landing a"6 |...

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Pg. 104 Question #1: Here we want P{landing a “6” | dice landed on different #’s}: P{6 | different} = P{6,different} / P{different} P{different} = 30/36 P{6,different} = P{1 st die = 6, 2 nd die ≠ 6} + P{1 st die ≠ 6, 2 nd die = 6} P{1 st die = 6, 2 nd die ≠ 6} = 5/36 = P{1 st die ≠ 6, 2 nd die = 6} So, P{6 | different} = P{6,different} / P{different} = 1/3. 1

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Q4: 3

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Q5: 5

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6
Pg. 104 Question #11: Let E = event that randomly chosen pregnant woman has an ectopic pregnancy Let S = event that a woman is a smoker We know from the problem that P{E|S} = 2P{E|S c }, and P{S} = 0.32. So, P{S|E} = P{SE}/P{E} P{SE} = P{E|S}P{S} P{E} = P{E|S}P{S} + P{E|S c }P{S c } So, P{S|E} = [P{E|S}P{S}] / [P{E|S}P{S} + P{E|S c }P{S c }] P{S|E} = [2P{E|S c }*0.32] / [2P{E|S c }*0.32 + P{E|S c }*0.68] P{S|E} ≈ 0.485 Q11 7

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Pg. 104 Question #12: Let S = survival of the baby Let C = Cesarean operation is performed P{S} = 0.98, P{C} = 0.15, P{S|C} = 0.96, P{C c } = 0.85 P{S} = P{S|C}P{S} + P{S|C c }P{C c } à P{S|C c } ≈ 0.9835 Pg. 105 Question #14: I = voter classifies himself as an Independent L = voter classifies himself as a Liberal C = voter classifies himself as a Conservative V = event that a voter voted P{I} = 0.46, P{L} = 0.3, P{C} = 0.24 P{V|I} = 0.35, P{V|L} = 0.62, P{V|C} = 0.58 8
a) We need to calculate P{I|V} P{I|V} = [P{V|I}P{I}] / [b] where b = P{V|I}P{I} + P{V|C}P{C}+ P{V|L}P{L} à P{I|V} ≈ 0.331 b)

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• Winter '08
• Buckingham
• Probability, Probability theory, Automobile, Laborer, pn, Monty Hall, F1c F2c F3c

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