ACHstep7paperLundy.docx - The PRC-Taiwan Crisis Assessing Alternative Outcomes Keila Lundy INLT401 Critical Analysis Christopher Merrit 1 Section I

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The PRC-Taiwan Crisis; Assessing Alternative OutcomesKeila Lundy INLT401: Critical AnalysisChristopher MerritSeptember 15, 2019
1Section I: IntroductionThe time for presidential elections in Taiwan has finally come, and tensions are at an all-time high in between Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The two parties currently running for this election are the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), and the Kuomintang (KMT). The current presidential candidates are Ma Ying Jeon for the KMT, and Shu Chin- Chiang for the TSU. Shu Chin-Chiang has been frequently utilizing his political platform to deliver speeches signifying the possibility of independence for Taiwan. The message that Chiang is trying to convey through his political stance goes against the Anti-Cessation Law passed by the PRC, in which the PRC can use “non-peaceful means against the Taiwan independence movement" should Taiwan declare their independence” (People’s Republic of China- Taiwan Crisis, 2019, np). Chiang’s indirect political stance in favor of Taiwan’s independence has causeda shift in the activities among the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and the Communist Party of China (CPC). With the elections just twenty days away, there are three hypotheses about the PRC’s future course-of-action. These hypotheses are H1: The crisis between Taiwan and the PRCwill be resolved diplomatically, H2: The PRC will use limited military intervention and intimidation tactics against Taiwan to influence the outcome of the election, and H3: The PRC will perform a full-scale direct military attack in order to seize and occupy Taiwan. The purpose of this paper is to assess the evidence provided, in order to rank the hypotheses according to theirlevel of possible occurrence.Section II–Outcome Assessed to be most likely to Occur: Limited InterventionBased on my analysis of the conflict between Taiwan and the PRC, I determined that H2, the PRC utilizing limited military intervention and intimidation tactics against Taiwan to influence the outcome of the election, has an +85% chance of occurring. Taiwan and the PRC have shown multiple times that they are willing to solve this conflict through peaceful meanings.
2An example of that can be noted in Evidence #2 and #3 of H1a. Evidence #3 states that fifty daysprior to the election, “two unnamed Pentagon sources confirmed the PRC is in the process of conducting a limited mobilization of air, land, and sea forces opposite Taiwan,” due to Chiang’s ongoing and indirect political stance in favor of Taiwan’s independence. In order to avoid any

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