plantillas estadisticas lV.xlsx - tiempo Media mes datos originales Yt 1 Enero 2 Febrero 3 Marzo 4 abril 5 mayo 6 Junio 7 julio 8 agosto 9 septiembre 10

plantillas estadisticas lV.xlsx - tiempo Media mes datos...

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tiempo mes datos originales Yt 1 Enero 123 2 Febrero 130 123 3 Marzo 125 130 123 4 abril 138 125 130 5 mayo 145 138 125 6 Junio 142 145 138 7 julio 141 142 145 8 agosto 146 141 142 9 septiembre 147 146 141 10 octubre 157 147 146 11 noviembre 150 157 147 12 diciembre 160 150 157 MEDIA 142 Yt-media Yt-2- media 123 -19 130 -12 125 123 -17 -19 138 130 -4 -12 145 125 3 -17 142 138 0 -4 141 145 -1 3 146 142 4 0 147 141 5 -1 157 146 15 4 150 147 8 5 160 157 18 15 Media 142 Y atrasado un periodoYt-1 Y atrasada dos peridos Yt-2 datos originales Yt Y atrasada dos peridos Yt-2
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Yt-media Yt-1-Media Y-media )^2 Producto -19 361 0 -12 -19 144 228 -17 -12 289 204 -4 -17 16 68 3 -4 9 -12 r1= 0.572 0 3 0 0 -1 0 1 0 4 -1 16 -4 5 4 25 20 15 5 225 75 8 15 64 120 18 8 324 144 1474 843 SE(R1) 0.289 t 1.98 Y-media )^2 Producto 361 0 144 0 289 323 r2 0.463 16 48 SE 0.371 9 -51 t 1.246 0 0 1 -3 16 0 25 -5 225 60 64 40 324 270 1474 682
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2.2 2.23 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 Gráfico y1
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Nota:Fijar celda: fn+f4
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Tiempo Cliebtes Yt Error et Valor abs et 1 58 2 54 58 -4 4 3 60 54 6 6 4 55 60 -5 5 5 62 55 7 7 6 62 62 0 0 7 65 62 3 3 8 63 65 -2 2 9 70 63 7 7 TOTALES 12 34 EJ Tiempo AÑO MATRIMONIO Yt Yt-1 Yt-media (Yt-1)- media 1 1985 2413 62.4 2 1986 2407 2413 56.4 62.4 3 1987 2403 2407 52.4 56.4 4 1988 2396 2403 45.4 52.4 5 1989 2403 2396 52.4 45.4 6 1990 2443 2403 92.4 52.4 7 1991 2371 2443 20.4 92.4 8 1992 2362 2371 11.4 20.4 9 1993 2334 2362 -16.6 11.4 10 1994 2362 2334 11.4 -16.6 11 1995 2336 2362 -14.6 11.4 12 1996 2344 2336 -6.6 -14.6 13 1997 2384 2344 33.4 -6.6 14 1998 2244 2384 -106.6 33.4 15 1999 2358 2244 7.4 -106.6 16 2000 2329 2358 -21.6 7.4 17 2001 2345 2329 -5.6 -21.6 18 2002 2254 2345 -96.6 -5.6 19 2003 2245 2254 -105.6 -96.6 20 2004 2279 2245 -71.6 -105.6 MEDIA 2350.6 r1 0.50 VALOR T 2.093 HALLAR SE HALLAR ERROR Pronostico Ŷ t
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Retraso de tiempo 2 Tiempo AÑO MATRIMONIO Yt yt-2 Yt-media (Yt-2)- media 1 1985 2413 62.4 2 1986 2407 56.4 3 1987 2403 2413 52.4 62.4 4 1988 2396 2407 45.4 56.4 5 1989 2403 2403 52.4 52.4 6 1990 2443 2396 92.4 45.4 7 1991 2371 2403 20.4 52.4 8 1992 2362 2443 11.4 92.4 9 1993 2334 2371 -16.6 20.4 10 1994 2362 2362 11.4 11.4 11 1995 2336 2334 -14.6 -16.6 12 1996 2344 2362 -6.6 11.4 13 1997 2384 2336 33.4 -14.6 14 1998 2244 2344 -106.6 -6.6 15 1999 2358 2384 7.4 33.4 16 2000 2329 2244 -21.6 -106.6 17 2001 2345 2358 -5.6 7.4 18 2002 2254 2329 -96.6 -21.6 19 2003 2245 2345 -105.6 -5.6 20 2004 2279 2254 -71.6 -96.6 MEDIA 2350.6 r2 0.43 valor t 2.09302405 SE
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Et^2 Abs(et)/Yt et/Yt MAD 4.25 16 0.074 -0.074 MSE 23.5 36 0.100 0.100 RMSE 4.85 25 0.091 -0.091 MAPE 0.0695 6.95 49 0.113 0.113 MPE 0.020 0 0.000 0.000 9 0.046 0.046 4 0.032 -0.032 49 0.100 0.100 188 0.556 0.162 JERCICIO Yt- media ^2 Error et Valor abs et Et^2 Abs(et)/Yt et/Yt 3893.8 0 3181.0 3519.4 -6 6 36 0.0025 -0.0025 2745.8 2955.4 -4 4 16 0.0017 -0.0017 2061.2 2379.0 -7 7 49 0.0029 -0.0029 2745.8 2379.0 7 7 49 0.0029 0.0029 8537.8 4841.8 40 40 1600 0.0164 0.0164 416.2 1885.0 -72 72 5184 0.0304 -0.0304 130.0 232.6 -9 9 81 0.0038 -0.0038 275.6 -189.2 -28 28 784 0.0120 -0.0120 130.0 -189.2 28 28 784 0.0119 0.0119 213.2 -166.4 -26 26 676 0.0111 -0.0111 43.6 96.4 8 8 64 0.0034 0.0034 1115.6 -220.4 40 40 1600 0.0168 0.0168 11363.6 -3560.4 -140 140 19600 0.0624 -0.0624 54.8 -788.8 114 114 12996 0.0483 0.0483 466.6 -159.8 -29 29 841 0.0125 -0.0125 31.4 121.0 16 16 256 0.0068 0.0068 9331.6 541.0 -91 91 8281 0.0404 -0.0404 11151.4 10201.0 -9 9 81 0.0040 -0.0040 5126.6 7561.0 34 34 1156 0.0149 0.0149 63014.8 31437.6 -134 134 54134 0.3050 -0.0622 SE(r1) 0.224 t 2.23 (yt-media)*(yt- 1-media)
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Yt- media ^2 3893.76000000001 0 3180.96000000001 0 2745.76000000001 3269.76 2061.16000000001 2560.56 2745.76000000001 2745.76 8537.76000000002 4194.96 416.160000000004 1068.96 129.960000000002 1053.36 275.559999999997 -338.64 129.960000000002 129.96 213.159999999997 242.36 43.5599999999988 -75.24 1115.56000000001 -487.64 11363.56 703.56 54.7600000000014 247.16 466.559999999996 2302.56 31.359999999999 -41.44 9331.55999999998 2086.56 11151.36 591.36 5126.55999999999 6916.56 63014.8 27170.48 0.274 t 1.58 (yt-media)*(yt-1- media)
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MAD -6.7 MSE 2706.7 RMSE 52.026 MAPE 0.0153 1.53 MPE -0.0031 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 Chart Title
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1998 2000 2002 2004
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RETRASO DE TIEMPO DE 3 PERIODOS Tiempo SEMANAS GALONES PMS Y (3) PMS Y(5) 1 1 275 2 2 291 3 3 307 4 4 281 291.0 5 5 295 293.0 6 6 268 294.3 289.80 7 7 252 281.3 288.40 8 8 279 271.7 280.60 9 9 264 266.3 275.00 10 10 288 265.0 271.60 11 11 302 277.0 270.20 12 12 287 284.7 277.00 13 13 290 292.3 284.00 14 14 311 293.0 286.20 15 15 277 296.0 295.60 16 16 245 292.7 293.40 17 17 282 277.7 282.00 18 18 277 268.0 281.00 19 19 298 268.0 278.40 20 20 303 285.7 275.80 21 21 310 292.7 281.00 22 22 299 303.7 294.00 23 23 285 304.0 297.40 24 24 250 298.0 299.00 25 25 260 278.0 289.40 26 26 245 265.0 280.80 27 27 271 251.7 267.80 28 28 282 258.7 262.20 29 29 302 266.0 261.60 30 30 285 285.0 272.00 MEDIA 282.03333333333 289.7 277.00 pronosticos r1 RETRASO DE TIEMPO DE 5 PERIODOS AÑO GALONES Yt GALONES Yt-5 ERROR (et) ERROR ABS
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1 275 2 291 3 307 4 281 5 295 6 268 289.80 -21.80 21.8 7 252 288.40 -36.40 36.4 8 279 280.60 -1.60 1.6 9 264 275.00 -11.00 11 10 288 271.60 16.40 16.4 11 302 270.20 31.80 31.8 12 287 277.00 10.00 10 13 290 284.00 6.00 6 14 311 286.20 24.80 24.8 15 277 295.60 -18.60 18.6 16 245 293.40 -48.40 48.4 17 282 282.00 0.00 0 18 277 281.00 -4.00 4 19 298 278.40 19.60 19.6 20 303 275.80 27.20 27.2 21 310 281.00 29.00 29 22 299 294.00 5.00 5 23 285 297.40 -12.40 12.4 24 250 299.00 -49.00 49 25 260 289.40 -29.40 29.4 26 245 280.80 -35.80 35.8 27 271 267.80 3.20 3.2 28 282 262.20 19.80 19.8 29 302 261.60 40.40 40.4 30 285 272.00 13.00 13 MEDIA 282.033333 514.6 RETRASO DE TIEMPO DE 7 PERIODOS AÑO
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