holt dani.xlsx - Para poder pronosticarnecesi El metodo holt o suavizacion doble t alpha beta 0.3 0.1 1 t punto en clase 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1 2 3

holt dani.xlsx - Para poder pronosticarnecesi El metodo...

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El metodo holt o suavizacion doble. Para poder pr t Yt(valor real) alpha 0.3 1 500 beta 0.1 2 350 1 3 250 4 400 5 450 6 350 7 200 8 300 9 350 10 200 11 150 12 400 13 550 14 350 15 250 16 550 17 550 18 400 19 350 20 600 21 750 22 500 23 400 24 650 t Yt(valor real) Lt punto en clase 1986 77.4 77.4 88.8 80.82 92.1 84.546 79.8 83.8026 1987 77.5 82.44984 89.1 84.79383 92.4 87.6241278 80.1 86.1435214 1988 74.7 83.261373 185.2 114.050564 162.4 131.821156 178.1 150.421053 1989 129.1 150.129347 158.2 158.015521 160.6 164.497962 138.7 162.543206 1990 127.2 156.950937 149.8 158.756053 151.7 160.375106 132.9 155.656761
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1991 103 142.559667 136.8 141.951998 141.3 142.70384 123.5 137.870569 1992 107.3 129.051165 136.1 130.600464 138.6 132.646439 123.7 129.848607 1993 106.1 122.341732 144.4 127.864461 156.1 135.90212 138.2 137.005547 1994 111.8 129.926882 149.8 135.61565 158.5 142.803982 141.8 143.512344 1995 119.1 137.168078 158 143.664722 170.4 152.55733 151.8 154.004214 1995 127.4 147.674313 178.2 157.685256 189.3 168.938687 169.5 171.82453 1996 151.4 168.43146 187.2 176.183576 199.2 185.773112 181.4 187.836281 1997 224.9 202.199305 317.7 241.205334 341.4 279.084575 300.7 296.395884 1998 244.9 292.422263 333.4 314.645851 370 342.411695 226.7 320.518411
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ronosticarnecesito el valor de arranque Lt Tt Yestimado(t+p) et 500 0 500 0 455 -4.500 450.5 -100.5 390.35 -10.52 379.84 -129.835 385.8845 -9.91 375.97445 24.02555 398.182115 -7.69 390.4928315 59.5071685 378.344982 -8.90 369.440913605 -19.4409136 318.60864 -13.99 304.62134367035 -104.621344 303.234941 -14.13 289.109004405984 10.8909956 307.376303 -12.30 295.077096788749 54.9229032 266.553968 -15.15 251.402448553022 -51.4024486 220.981714 -18.19 202.788121331422 -52.7881213 261.951685 -12.28
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Unformatted text preview: 249.67444863636 150.325551 339.772114-3.27 336.504644290725 213.495356 340.553251-2.86 337.690641920059 12.3093581 311.383449-5.49 305.890121002991-55.890121 379.123085 1.83 380.953052730954 169.046947 431.667137 6.90 438.568513358599 111.431487 426.997959 5.74 432.742280397193 -32.7422804 407.919596 3.26 411.181648912293 -61.1816489 467.827154 8.93 476.753757405494 123.246243 558.72763 17.12 575.85162062857 174.148379 553.096134 14.85 567.944576265866 -67.9445763 517.561203 9.81 527.371307923997 -127.371308 564.159916 13.49 577.648880846969 72.3511192 Tt Yestimado(t+p et 0.342 0.6804 0.53802 0.348942 0.5484468 0.7766319 0.55090807 0.20760243 3.26576123 4.71624433 6.10460966 5.46497806 5.70709765 5.78463202 5.01069315 3.95039698 3.73586887 3.52418728 2.6999341 1.12023126 0.94744125 0.9278813 0.3517661-0.56535098-0.35388592-0.11389985-0.38229302-1.09475124-0.43300321 0.41406295 0.48299936-0.27316704 0.32302649 1.00955698 0.97943753 0.2470672 0.87202485 1.67408318 1.65136327 0.85323684 1.76900744 2.71744975 2.73428915 2.12155323 2.68460942 3.37510215 3.24390878 4.35582036 7.8208412 10.8266812 11.4751439 9.93026741 11.1595995 12.820224 9.34887314 Analisis de la ajusta de la m 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 10 20 30 40 50 60 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Chart Title grafica mejor forma posible los datos estimados al dato real. 5 10 15 20 25 Chart Title...
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