jurnal mikro 1.pdf - Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Volume 12 Nomor 2 Desember 2011 hlm.257-271 ȱ EL NINO LA NINA DAN PENAWARAN PANGAN DI JAWA INDONESIA

jurnal mikro 1.pdf - Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Volume 12...

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Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Volume 12, Nomor 2, Desember 2011, hlm.257-271 EL NINO, LA NINA, DAN PENAWARAN PANGAN DI JAWA, INDONESIA Arini Wahyu Utami, Jamhari, dan Suhatmini Hardyastuti Jurusan Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Universitas Gadjah Mada Jalan Flora Nomor 1 Bulaksumur Yogyakarta 55281, Telepon/Fax. +62-0274-516656 Diterima 20 Mei 2011 / Disetujui 17 Oktober 2011 Abstract: Paddy and maize are two important food crops in Indonesia and mainly produced in Java Island. This research aimed to know the impact of El Nino and La Nina on paddy and maize farmer’s supply in Java. Cross sectional data from four provinces in Java was combined with time series data during 1987-2006. Paddy supply was estimated using log model, while maize supply used autoregressive model; each was estimated using two types of regression function. First, it included dummy variable of El Nino and La Nina to know their influence into paddy and maize supply. Second, Southern Oscillation Index was used to analyze the supply changing when El Nino or La Nina occur. The result showed that El Nino and La Nina did not influence paddy supply, while La Nina influenced maize supply in Java. Maize supply increased when La Nina occurred. Keywords: El Nino, La Nina, autoregressive model, paddy crop, food supply Abstrak: Padi dan jagung merupakan dua tanaman pangan penting di Indonesia dan terutama diproduksi di Pulau Jawa. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak El Nino dan La Nina terhadap penawaran padi dan jagung tingkat petani di Jawa. Data cross section dari empat provinsi di Jawa digabungkan dan dianalisis bersama dengan data deret waktu tahun 1987–2006. Fungsi penawaran padi dan jagung dianalisis menggunakan OLS. Penawaran padi diestimasi dengan model log, sedangkan penawaran jagung dengan model autoregresif; masing-masing dianalisis menggunakan dua persamaan regresi. Pertama, digu- nakan variabel dummy kejadian El Nino dan La Nina untuk mengetahui pengaruhnya terha- dap penawaran padi dan jagung; kedua, nilai IOS dimasukkan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar pengaruh El Nino dan La Nina terhadap penawaran padi dan jagung. Dari penelitian diketahui bahwa El Nino dan La Nina tidak mempengaruhi penawaran padi, sedangkan La Nina mempengaruhi penawaran jagung di Jawa. Penawaran jagung di Jawa meningkat pada saat terjadi La Nina. Kata kunci: El Nino, model autoregresif, La Nina, penawaran padi, penawaran pangan PENDAHULUAN Pangan merupakan salah satu kebutuhan dasar manusia. Di Indonesia, padi dan jagung meru- pakan dua tanaman pangan penting yang ba- nyak diproduksi oleh petani, terutama di Pulau Jawa. Produksi kedua tanaman pangan tersebut sangat mudah terpengaruh oleh keadaan iklim karena merupakan tanaman semusim yang masa penanamannya berjangka pendek, kurang lebih 2-4 bulan.
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