Rustin Meyer Assignment 4.docx - Daniel Washington Rustin Meyer PSYC 2220 Assignment 4 Proper and Improper Linear Models Overconfidence can threaten our

Rustin Meyer Assignment 4.docx - Daniel Washington Rustin...

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Daniel Washington 03/18/2015 Rustin Meyer PSYC 2220 Assignment 4: Proper and Improper Linear Models Overconfidence can threaten our decision making capabilities and our judgment in the sense that it may cause us to overlook important details or not consider all possibilities when making a decision. Moreover, overconfidence can exacerbate the extent to which we overestimate the accuracy of our global intuitive judgment in terms of arriving to conclusions on certain situations. One example is arriving to the conclusion that individuals who stutter are less intelligent, less confident, and are more prone to anxiety than those who do not stutter. This type of bias may be fueled by what an individual has learned about stuttering, and if they have learned that stuttering results from a lack of confidence and is fueled by anxiety, then they will categorize all stutterers as individuals who are prone to anxiety and lack confidence. While this may be the case for some individuals who stutter, it is not plausible to conclude that stuttering itself equates to a lack of intelligence and high anxiety, nor is it plausible to generalize all stutterers as individuals who are less intelligent than non-stutterers. Having this type of bias can inevitably cause one to overestimate their ability to judge others and it can cause one to not consider other alternative explanations as to why a particular situation is producing a certain outcome. In addition, stereotypes, confirmation biases, availability heuristics, and representative heuristics are other dangerous facets that we use to make predictions about certain outcomes.
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Interestingly enough, research has suggested that linear models, which are weighted averages used to measure outcomes and make predictions, are the most constructive means to assessing situations and individual characteristics compared to intuitive global predictions. For example, in one study, 37,500 sailors in World War II were tested on their performance in navy elementary school, and based on the results of the study, the test scores yielded more valid and more reliable predictions than judges who interviewed the sailors and had access to the scores. It is plausible to conclude that the lack of validity of the unstructured interviews in the study may have resulted from factors such as the relationship between the interviewer and the interviewee. If an interviewer establishes a great rapport with an interviewee and the interviewee possesses certain personality characteristics that the interviewer deems to be desirable, then that interviewer may be more inclined to emphasize the interviewee’s positive attributes. Or on the contrary, if an interviewer and interviewee do not establish a good rapport, then the interviewer may be more inclined to pay closer attention to what the interviewee could be lacking in. No matter how objective we attempt to be, personal biases and schemas can still shape how we respond to situations, how we respond to individuals, and how we make assessments and form perceptions. So in conclusion, people are not always reliable sources for making measurements
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