chris 2222222.docx - Running Heading Business decision Analysis Parvinder Kaur Bhullar Student id 2018090173 Individual Problem 2 Submitted by Dr Chris

chris 2222222.docx - Running Heading Business decision...

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Running Heading: Business decision Analysis Parvinder Kaur Bhullar Student id: 2018090173 Individual Problem 2 Submitted by: Dr. Chris Amponsah Submit Date: 7/5/2019
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Problem 1. week Value Forecas t Forecast error Absolut e forecast error Square d forecast error Percentag e error Absolute value of percentag e Error 1 18 2 13 18 -5 5 25 -38.46% 38.46 3 16 13 3 3 9 18.75% 18.75 4 11 16 -5 5 25 -45.45% 45.45 5 17 11 6 6 36 35.39% 35.39 6 14 17 -3 3 9 -21.42% 21.42 22 104 159.37% 159.37 a. Mean absolute error = 22 5 = 4.4 b. Mean Squared Error = 104 5 = 20.8 c. Mean Absolute Percentage error = 159.37 5 = 31.87 d. Forecast for week 7 is 14 Problem 2. Answer 2. A) Mean absolute error (MAE) = 13.67 5 = 2.73 B) Mean squared error (MSE) = 54.31 5 = 10.86 C) Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = 105.89 5 = 21.178 %
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D) Forecast for week 7 is 14.83 Problem 3. Answer 3. Moving Average Approach Provides the most accurate forecast result than the Naïve approach. Problem 11. Answer 11. 1 80 2 82 3 84 4 83 5 83 6 84 7 85 8 84 9 82 10 83 11 84 12 83 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 Chart Title
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b.) Ft + 1 = ( most recent data value ) k Ft + 1 = 83 + 84 + 83 3 = 83.3 Ft + 1 = aYt + ( 1 a ) Ft = a = 0.2 Ft + 1 = 0.2(12) + (1- 0.2) (83.3) = 24 + 0.8 ( 83.3 ) = 24 + 66.64
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Unformatted text preview: = 90.64 c.) forecast accuracy error = 80 + 82 + 84 3 = 82 Problem 19. Answer 19. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Chart Title t Y t-t t-t 2 yt Yt-y (t-t)(yt-y) 1 120 3 9 120 20 60 2 110 2 4 110 10 20 3 100 1 1 100 4 96 96-4-4 5 94-1 1 94-6 6 6 92-2 4 92-8 16 7 88-3 9 88-12 36 28 28 700 134 b.) B 1= 700 28 = 25 B = y-b 1 t= 100-25(4) = 100-100 = 0 Y 10 = 0+(25)(10) = 250. c.) 91.3 Problem 21. Answer 21. B t = ∑ t = 1 n ( t − t ) ( y − y ) ∑ ( t − t ) 2 Bt= (1.5)(6.5-12)+(2.5)(8.1-12)+(3.5)(8.4-12)+(4-5)(10.2+1)+(5.5)(12.5-12)+(6-5)(13.3-12)+(2-5)(13.7-12)+(8-5)(15.6)+(9 -5)(18.1-12) (1-5) 2 +(2-5) 2 +(3-5) 2 + (4-5) 2 +(5-5) 2 +(6-5) 2 +(7-5) 2 +(8-5) 2 +(9-5) 2 16= 60 B = 12-b 1 (5) b 0 = 4.7165 T 1 =b +b 1 B 1 = 1.4567 T 1 = 4.7165+1.4567 c.) 14.9134 Problem 11 1 80 2 82 3 84 4 83 5 83 6 84 7 85 8 84 9 82 10 83 11 84 12 83 a. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 Chart Title b....
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