US_GlobalDairy_ppt.ppt - The Impact of Globalization on the U.S Dairy Industry Threats Opportunities and Implications Tom Suber June 3-4 2010

US_GlobalDairy_ppt.ppt - The Impact of Globalization on the...

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Presentation to the Dairy Industry Advisory Committee June 3-4, 2010 The Impact of Globalization on the U.S. Dairy Industry: Threats, Opportunities, and Implications Tom Suber
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Presentation to the Dairy Industry Advisory Committee June 3 - 4, 2010 Goals for this discussion Provide an overview of project objectives/approach Review the expected evolution of the global dairy industry and the implications for U.S. dairy Discuss strategic options for the U.S. Recommendations for developing the appropriate option
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Presentation to the Dairy Industry Advisory Committee June 3 - 4, 2010 Original project objectives defined by the Task Force Primary : Provide a strategic analysis of the global dairy landscape to provide a common understanding of the challenges, opportunities and threats posed by increasing globalization to the U.S. dairy industry Secondary : From the analysis, determine if there are suitable programs of work at the industry level to address the opportunities and challenges of globalization
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Presentation to the Dairy Industry Advisory Committee June 3 - 4, 2010 Key themes Globalization of the dairy industry will increase in the coming years, with significant impact on domestic and international trade 1 Demand for dairy products will grow faster than available supply , driven disproportionately by emerging markets 2
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Presentation to the Dairy Industry Advisory Committee June 3 - 4, 2010 Goals for this discussion Provide an overview of project objectives/approach Review the expected evolution of the global dairy industry and the implications for U.S. dairy Discuss strategic options for the U.S. Recommendations for developing the appropriate option
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Presentation to the Dairy Industry Advisory Committee June 3 - 4, 2010 0 100 200 300 400 500 Real GDP per capita indexed from 2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 GDP per capita SE Asia Russia Brazil EU US China India $1,638 $4,731 $48,390 $33,036 $6,684 $9,781 $2,489 -50 150 350 550 600M World population growth forecast (2008-2030) -27 10 95 124 131 385 408 543 Europe Oceania South America North America China India Rest of Asia Africa 1,578 1,330 1,148 729 975 528 389 34 Future world economic and population growth will be driven by emerging markets Source: US Census Bureau international database 2008 population (millions) Dramatic increase in middle-class consumers (~800 million consumers by 2030)
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Presentation to the Dairy Industry Advisory Committee June 3 - 4, 2010 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 0 10 20 30 40 $50K USA I celand J apan New Zealand South Korea GDP per capita 2005 ($ppp) Animal protein Kcals per capita per day Australia China Malaysia Thailand Philippines I ndonesia Pakistan Vietnam Sri Lanka I ndia Bangladesh As economies create wealth, consumption of animal protein (and dairy) will increase GDP per capita ($ppp) and animal protein consumption (includes fish and dairy) Source: “Opportunities for Australian Agriculture” - Australia Farm Institute 0 2 4 6 8 10% J apan 0.5 ROW 0.7 EU 0.8 US 1.0 Oceania 1.5 Russia / Ukraine 1.7 Mexico 2.2 South America 3.7 SE Asia 5.6 India 7.5 China 7.9 191 2,216 1,539 867 997 837 269 295 2007 209 2,346 2,374 1,367 1,241 925 373 336 2013 Dairy protein consumption CAGR ('07-'13) 3,307 291 1,424 3,472 300 1,486
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