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Mon 6:10 PM 86% View History Bookmarks Window Help Safari File Edit s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com . nttps:/s3.us. .. Unemploym.. 98% (4 Fri 1.. ... Content bill summary... Search: men.. Men's Blazer.. PI Go to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and compute the following variables (beginning 1998): Data Variables 10-Year BreakEven Inflation Rate Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Less Food and Energy (percent change 1-year) BEI TT (Core inflation rate) INFL CHG SWAP RATE NOTE: To create a lagged variable, copy the explanatory variable series and paste in the second row; then eliminate the very first row of observations and the very last (most recent) observation. Global Price of Food Index (percent change 1-year) Global Price of Energy Index (percent change 1-year) Cvilian Unemployment Rate (U) -
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Unformatted text preview: Natural Rate of Unemployment (U*) CBOE 10-Year Treasury Note Volatility Futures max[I(T- TT-1)-1, o] %AFOOD %NERG (U-U* VIX (proxy for liquidity risk premium) 1. The Phillips curve (TTt+1 T; +random events) states that the core inflation rate (TT), defined as wage growth relative to productivity growth, follows a random walk. A widening unemployment gap, (U-Ut)#0, and volatile changes in food and energy prices (E) denote unanticipated random events. a. Using the latest minutes, summarize the FOMC's expectations (analysis) of factors likely to influence future core inflation rate movements. Be sure to illustrate any Philips curve variables of concern. b. Using the latest minutes, summarize the FOMC's assessment of implied inflation expectations formed in the financial markets, which are captured by the VIX and trend BEl movements. 2...
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