IA_NH_Early_Contests_Part_3_AG

IA_NH_Early_Contests_Part_3_AG - The Early Contests in...

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The Early Contests in Presidential Nominations Part 3 D. Jason Berggren University of Georgia Spring 2008
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What is front-loading ? What are the likely consequences?
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Front-Loading of Primaries 0 1 5 2 13 6 0 5 10 15 20 January February March April May June 1972 1976 1980
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Front-Loading of Primaries 4 20 6 1 5 2 0 5 10 15 20 25 January February March April May June 2000 2004 2008
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Effects of Front-Loading • Favors well-known candidates over underdogs • Favors candidates with money • encourages candidates to enter race even earlier • prompts other states to move their primary dates up • lengthens invisible primary season; shortens actual primary season
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Withdrawal of Major Opponent Year Nominee Major Opp. NH Primary Withdrawal 1972 Nixon None Mar. 7 NA 1976 Ford Reagan Feb. 24 Rep. Convention 1980 Reagan Bush Feb. 26 May 26 1988 Bush Dole Feb. 16 Mar. 29 Robertson Apr. 6 1992 Bush Buchanan Feb. 18 Rep. Convention
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Withdrawal of Major Opponent Year Nominee Major Opp. NH Primary Withdrawal 1996 Dole Buchanan Feb. 20 Rep. Convention Forbes Mar. 14 2000 Bush McCain Feb. 1 Mar. 9 2008 McCain Huckabee Romney Jan. 8 Giuliani Thompson
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Withdrawal of Major Opponent Year Nominee Major Opp. NH Primary Withdrawal 1972 McGovern Humphrey Mar. 7 Dem. Convention Wallace Dem. Convention Muskie April 27 1976 Carter Brown Feb. 24 Dem. Convention Udall June 14 Church June 14 Wallace June 9 H. Jackson May 1 1980 Carter E. Kennedy Feb. 26 Dem. Convention 1984 Mondale Hart Feb. 28 Dem. Convention J. Jackson Dem. Convention
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Withdrawal of Major Opponent Year Nominee Major Opp. NH Primary Withdrawal 1988 Dukakis J. Jackson Feb. 16 Dem. Convention Gore Apr. 22 1992 B. Clinton Brown Feb. 18 Dem. Convention Tsongas Mar. 19 2000 Gore Bradley Feb. 1 Mar. 9 2004 Kerry Edwards Jan. 27 Mar. 3 Dean Feb. 18 2008 H. Clinton Obama Jan. 8 Edwards
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The Republicans: Money Leaders Total Raised 1. Romney $62,829,069 (17.4 million of his own) 2. Giuliani $47,253,521 3. McCain $32,124,785 4. Thompson $12,828,111 5. Paul $ 8,268,453 6. Brownback $ 4,235,333 7. Tancredo $ 3,538,244 8. Huckabee $ 2,345,798 9. Hunter $ 1,890,873 Source: 3rd Quarter Results, Federal Election Commission, Sept. 30, 2007
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The Republicans: Money Leaders Total Spent 1. Romney $53,612,552 2. Giuliani $30,603,695 3. McCain $28,636,157 4. Thompson $ 5,706,367 5. Brownback $ 4,140,660 6. Tancredo $ 3,458,130 7. Paul $ 2,824,786 8. Hunter $ 1,758,132 9. Huckabee $ 1,694,497 Source: 3rd Quarter Results, Federal Election Commission, Sept. 30, 2007
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The Republicans: Money Leaders
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IA_NH_Early_Contests_Part_3_AG - The Early Contests in...

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