POLS 1101 Presidential Election Assignment 2008 Presidential Primaries

POLS 1101 Presidential Election Assignment 2008 Presidential Primaries

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POLS 1101 2008 Presidential Primary Election Assignment (Due Date: Monday, February 11 th ) Objective 1: Identifying the National Frontrunner in a Presidential Nomination Contest: Poll Numbers and Delegate Count 1) One key measure for determining which presidential candidate is the strongest candidate (i.e., the frontrunner) is by looking at their level of support nationally. Based on the latest Gallup Poll survey figures, which 2008 Republican and Democratic presidential candidate may be identified as the current national frontrunner? What percentage of support are each of the frontrunners earning nationally and how far are they ahead of their strongest challengers? For the latest Gallup survey data, see http://www.gallup.com/ . (10 points) Sample Answer Format (examples below from 2000 Democratic and Republican Nomination contests). Democratic Frontrunner Frontrunner % Margin Date(s) of Survey Al Gore (64-25%) + 39 February 4-6, 2000 Leading Challenger: Bill Bradley Republican Frontrunner Frontrunner % Margin Date(s) of Survey George W. Bush (56-33%) + 23 February 4-6, 2000 Leading Challenger: John McCain 2) Though it is important to identify who is the popular national frontrunner for each party’s nomination contest, it is even more important after the voting begins to monitor the delegate count. After all, to become either the Democratic or Republican nominee, a candidate must win a majority of delegates. In 2008, the Democratic nominee must win at least 2,025 out of 4,049 delegates. The Republican nominee must win at least 1,191 out of 2,380 delegates. Currently, as of February 1 st , CNN estimates that on the Republican side John McCain has 97 delegates, Mitt Romney has 74, Mike Huckabee has 29, and Ron Paul has 6 delegates. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton has 232 delegates and Barack Obama has 158. (Please note that these figures include Democratic superdelegates and a few Republican unpledged delegates who have committed at this point.) After February 5
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This note was uploaded on 04/02/2008 for the course POLIS 1101 taught by Professor Berggren during the Spring '08 term at University of Georgia Athens.

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POLS 1101 Presidential Election Assignment 2008 Presidential Primaries

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