Iowa_NH_The_Early_Contests2

Iowa_NH_The_Early_Contests2 - The Early Contests in...

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The Early Contests in Presidential Nominations Part 2 D. Jason Berggren University of Georgia Spring 2008
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Pfiffner (2008, 23) wrote, “The earlier Iowa caucuses occasionally play an important role, as they did for Jimmy Carter in 1976 and for Gary Hart in 1984, but the New Hampshire contest is the make-or- break test for many candidacies .”
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Why Iowa Matters? It is the “first in the nation” vote in the nomination process for both parties
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Why New Hampshire Matters? It is the “first in the nation” primary
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Why New Hampshire Matters? “As New Hampshire Goes… …So Goes the Nation” Before 1992, had reputation for picking Republican presidential nominees 1972-Nixon, 1976-Ford, 1980-Reagan, 1988-Bush, 1992-Bush
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Why Iowa Matters? Eventual Nominee Usually Wins Here winning % for Republicans = 60% for Democrats = 62.5%
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Why Iowa Matters? David Yepsen: “there are three tickets out of Iowa…first class, coach and standby”
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Why Iowa Matters? Eventual Nominee Always Among Top Three for Republicans = 100% for Democrats = 100%
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Iowa Caucus (R) 1976 FORD 45% Reagan 42% ---------- 1980 Bush 32% REAGAN 30% Baker 15% 1988 Dole 37% Robertson 25% BUSH 19% 1996 DOLE 26% Buchanan 23% Alexander 18% 2000 GW BUSH 41% Forbes 30% Keyes 14% = Eventual Nominee
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1972 Uncommitted 36% Muskie 36% McGOVERN 23% 1976 Uncommitted 37% CARTER 28% Bayh 13% 1980 CARTER 59% E. Kennedy 31% ---------- 1984 MONDALE 49% Hart 17% McGovern 10% 1988 Gephardt 31% Simon 27% DUKAKIS 22% 1992
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Iowa_NH_The_Early_Contests2 - The Early Contests in...

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