1408-3658-1-SM.pdf - J Math and Its Appl ISSN 1829-605X Vol 4 No 1 May 2007 39\u201346 Model Regresi Linear Produksi Padi di Indonesia dengan Estimasi-M

# 1408-3658-1-SM.pdf - J Math and Its Appl ISSN 1829-605X Vol...

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J. Math. and Its Appl. ISSN: 1829-605X Vol. 4, No. 1, May 2007, 39–46 Model Regresi Linear Produksi Padi di Indonesia dengan Estimasi-M Hasih Pratiwi, Yuliana Susanti, dan Monaluvy Septiningrum Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNS Surakarta [email protected] Abstrak Policy of the price of main food is one of important instrument in creating resilience of national food. Remembering the importance of accomplishment effort of requirement of food, especially paddy, it is required an effort to pre- dict production in future. There are some methods which are applicable to predict the production of paddy and to investigate the factors influencing it; one of them is regression analysis. An estimation method which is applica- ble to determine the regression model is M-estimation. This estimation is an extension of maximum likelihood method and robust estimation, where its estimation value is not influenced by small change in data. The purpose of this research is to determine the regression model to predict the production of paddy in Indonesia using estimation M. Based on the result of research we conclude that the prediction model for production of paddy in Indonesia with M-estimation is y = - 92 , 790 + 5 , 02 x 1 + 6 , 37 x 2 . The increment of one hectare farm wide and one ton seed will increase production of paddy 5.03 tons and 6.23 tons respectively. The regression parameter significance test shows that the farm wide influences the produc- tion of paddy significantly. 39