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lecture11 - Polling and Elections PS 141B Week 6 Lecture 11...

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Polling and Elections PS 141B; Week 6, Lecture 11; November 7, 2007 Gender Gap 1. The difference between men and women on some political issue, especially voting 2. History 3. In 1968, women began voting more Democratic than men 4. Gap is larger among unmarried and well-educated women A. Married white women solidly Republican B. Race and the Gender Gap 1) http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/07F/polisci141b-1/womendempartyid.pdf 5. Conventional Wisdom: Women became more Democratic as greater number of women entered the workforce A. http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/07F/polisci141b-1/gendergappres.pdf 6. The CW is wrong! A. http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/07F/polisci141b-1/dempartyidgendergap.pdf 7. Why does the gap grow and shrink for each election? Polling and Elections 1. Public Opinion Polling and Elections A. Pre-Election Day Polling 1) Biggest Problem: Who will vote? 2) Screening Voters B. How Accurate are Polls? 1) Polls early in the campaign are often very inaccurate 2) General election polls late in the campaign have an excellent accuracy record C.
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