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lecture02 - A Margin of Error The upper and lower bounds of...

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PS 141B; Week 1, Lecture 2; October 3, 2007 Measuring Public Opinion A. Brief history of Public Opinion Research a. Before Polling 2. Early American Polling: Straw Polls 3. 1936 Election a. Literary Digest b. George Gallup and scientific polling 4. 1948 Gallup Poll a. Overestimating the Republican Vote b. Truman Wins c. Problem: Quota Sampling B. Probability Sampling: The process 1. A probability sampling is any method of sampling that utilizes some form of random selection 2. Define a population 3. Devise a method of selecting people from the population at random A. EXAMPLE 1: Bathtub B. EXAMPLE 2: 20000 ones and zeros 4. Important terms and concepts a. Sampling error: The difference between the estimates obtained from the sample and the true population b. Confidence interval: A measure of the precision of an estimated value
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Unformatted text preview: A. Margin of Error: The upper and lower bounds of a confidence interval C. Confidence Level: The degree of certainty to which an estimate can be trusted A) Becoming good consumers of public opinion polls A. What the media reports: B. Washington Post C. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? D. 64% disapprove E. 33% approve F. Margin of Error = +/- 3 points G. What POPs really tell us: H. 95% confident that I. ________________ disapprove J. ________________ approve K. Random Digit Dialing L. The Process ii. Advantages A) Less costly B) Less intrusive C) Much faster iii. Disadvantages: Non-response bias A) More like to exclude B) Uneducated, poor, minority group, low SES, single household D. Misreading Polls 1. 2004 Election Tracking Polls a. Graph 1 b. Graph 2 2. Statewide Polls in close states with large MOE a. Table 1...
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