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Running head: [SHORTENED TITLE UP TO 50 CHARACTERS] 1The PRC-Taiwan Crisis; Assessing Alternative OutcomesJonathan J. Langley JrJanuary12, 2020Intelligence 401, American Military UniversityProfessor Christopher Merritt
[SHORTENED TITLE UP TO 50 CHARACTERS] 2The PRC-Taiwan Crisis; Assessing Alternative OutcomesSection I: Introduction. This paper will discuss the alternative outcomes associated to the PRC-Taiwan Crisis. The crisis centers on the election between Shu Chin-Chiang and Ma Ying Jeon. Shu Chin-Chiang is the representative for the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) and Ma Ying Jeon represents the Nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) and is also the current Mayor of Taipei. Chin-Chiang seeks independence for Taiwan while Jeon claims to desire maintaining the One China goal, which is in line with the Peoples Republic of China (PRC). The current President of Taiwan, Chen Shui-bian, fears there is interference from the PRC and is taking steps to mitigate any influence from the interference.The election has caught the attention of the international community due to the actions and activities of the PRC and People’s Liberation Army in the days approaching the election. Tensions are high as personal attacks between candidates are exacerbated by military movementsof the PLA. Despite concerns the United States has limited its involvement. The PRC’s Hu Jintaoappealed directly to the United Nations (UN), prompting the United Nations Security Council to address the crisis. Election numbers have shifted from being heavily in favor of Ma Ying Jeon to now a substantial lead for Shu Chin-Chiang. The shift has created an increased level of scrutiny by the PRC due to Shu Chin-Chiang’s rhetoric of independence and the desire to move away from PRC control. There are three potential outcomes, Direct Attack, Diplomatic Solution, and Limited intervention. Through analysis of the events leading up to the election, historical events between the PRC and Taiwan, and the current international economic and political landscape, limited intervention is assessed to be the most likely way forward.
[SHORTENED TITLE UP TO 50 CHARACTERS] 3Section II–Outcome Assessed to be most likely to Occur: Limited Intervention(a) Limited Intervention is assessed to be the mostly likely to occur because it is in fact the current state of affairs between the PRC and Taiwan. During the 90 days leading up to the election the PRC has mobilized several elements of the PLA. The PLA, as well as the PLA Air Force and PLA Navy, have conducted a number of exercises, troop movements, as well as missile tests in the Taiwan Strait. Additionally, the PRC has made it clear through multiple