IN THE GRAVEYARD OF EMPIRES
ALSO BY SETH G. JONES The Rise of European Security Cooperation
IN THE GRAVEYARD OF EMPIRES America’s War in Afghanistan
SETH G. JONES W. W. NORTON & COMPANY New York London
Copyright © 2009 by Seth G. Jones All rights reserved For information about permission to reproduce selections from this book, write to Permissions, W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10110 Unless otherwise noted, all maps were created by Carol Earnest. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Jones, Seth G., 1972- In the graveyard of empires: America’s war in Afghanistan / Seth G. Jones.—1st ed. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN: 978-0-393-07142-9 1. Afghan War, 20012. Counterinsurgency—Afghanistan. 3. Afghanistan—Politics and government—2001–4. Taliban. I. Title. DS371.412.J665 2009 958.104’7—dc22 2009011740 W. W. Norton & Company, Inc. 500 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10110 W. W. Norton & Company Ltd. Castle House, 75/76 Wells Street, London W1T 3QT 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
To those struggling for peace in Afghanistan
CONTENTS List of Maps and Graphs Chronology Photographic Insert Introduction 1. Descent into Violence 2. The Mujahideen Era 3. Uncivil War 4. The Rise of the Taliban 5. Al Qa’ida’s Strategic Alliance 6. Operation Enduring Freedom 7. Light Footprint 8. Early Successes 9. The Logic of Insurgency 10. Collapse of Law and Order 11. A Growing Cancer 12. The Perfect Storm 13. A Three-Front War 14. National Caveats 15. The Water Must Boil 16. Al Qa’ida: A Force Multiplier 17. In the Eye of the Storm 18. Back to the Future Afterword Acknowledgments Notes
LIST OF MAPS AND GRAPHS Figure 1.1 Map of Afghanistan Figure 2.1 Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, 1979 Figure 4.1 Taliban Conquest of Afghanistan Figure 6.1 Key Engagements against Taliban and al Qa’ida Figure 6.2 Pakistan’s Tribal Agencies Figure 7.1 Peak International Military Presence Per Capita Figure 7.2 Peak International Police Presence Per Capita Figure 7.3 International Financial Assistance Per Capita over First Two Years Figure 8.1 U.S. and Coalition Battlefield Geometry, May 2004 Figure 11.1 Opium Poppy Cultivation, 1991–2008 Figure 13.1 The Insurgent Fronts Figure 14.1 Stages of NATO Expansion, 2007
CHRONOLOGY 1839–1842 First Anglo-Afghan War, which results in a crushing defeat for the British. The departing force is reduced from 16,000 to one British soldier. 1878–1880 Second Anglo-Afghan War culminates in the Battle of Kandahar, in which British forces decisively defeat Ayub Khan in September 1880. 1893 Sir Henry Mortimer Durand, British foreign secretary of India, signs an agreement with the Afghan ruler, Amir Abdur Rehman Khan, separating Afghanistan from British India on November 12. The demarcation is known as the Durand Line. 1919 Third Anglo-Afghan War, which leads to the Treaty of Rawalpindi on August 8, recognizing Afghan independence. 1929 King Amanullah Khan, who had led Afghanistan to independence and attempted to modernize the country, is overthrown by Habibullah Kalakani, a Tajik. Kalikani is overthrown several months later, marking the start of a dynasty spanning five decades by the Pashtun Musahiban family. The first leader is Muhammad Nadir Shah.
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