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Unformatted text preview: Statistics 20: Quiz 2 Solutions 1. You begin playing the computer game The Oregon Trail . You may assume that all players randomly select their occupations (banker or farmer) at the start of the game from a draw with replacement out of a bag including 7 banker tickets and 3 farmer tickets. As they travel the trail, bankers have probability 0.2 of contracting cholera, and about 10% of farmers fall ill with this disease. At the start of the game, what is the probability that you’ll contract cholera? Let’s define the following events: B : the event that you play the game as a banker. F : the event that you play the game as a farmer. Notice that B c = F and F c = B because you must be either a banker or a farmer. C : the event that you obtain cholera. We can find the probability that you’ll contract cholera using the Law of Total Probability: P ( C ) = P ( C  B ) P ( B )+ P ( C  B c ) P ( B c ) = P ( C  B ) P ( B )+ P ( C  F ) P ( F ) = 0 . 2 * . 7+0 . 1 * . 3 = . 17....
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This note was uploaded on 04/02/2008 for the course STAT 20 taught by Professor Staff during the Spring '08 term at University of California, Berkeley.
 Spring '08
 Staff
 Statistics

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