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Unformatted text preview: STAT 430/510 Lecture 6 STAT 430/510 Probability Hui Nie Lecture 6 June 3rd, 2009 STAT 430/510 Lecture 6 Review Properties of Probability Definition of Conditional Probability The Law of Total Probability Bayes Formula STAT 430/510 Lecture 6 Example A plane is missing, and it is presumed that it was equally likely to have gone down in any of 3 possible regions. Let 1 β i , i=1,2,3, denote the probability that the plane will be found upon a search of the ith region when the plane is, in fact, in that region. What is the conditional probability that the plane is in the ith region given that a search of region 1 is unsuccessful? STAT 430/510 Lecture 6 Example A bin contains 3 different types of disposable flashlights. The probability that a type 1 flashlight will give over 100 hours of use is 0.7, with the corresponding probabilities for type 2 and type 3 flashlights being 0.4 and 0.3, respectively. Suppose that 20 percent of the flashlights in the bin are type 1, 30 percent are type 2, and 50 percent...
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This note was uploaded on 06/28/2009 for the course STAT 430 taught by Professor Krieger during the Summer '08 term at UPenn.
 Summer '08
 KRIEGER
 Conditional Probability, Probability

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