Chapter 5 Efficient Capital Markets

Chapter 5 Efficient Capital Markets - Mum WQQZbkflzvN/fim...

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Imw INm uwo Lm Lo :m o m :0 5 no mm mo 30:3 88:8 8 8.: .3 54.88:” 0.93.3: 3:188 N m V ICC.» m mbc 0:353:58 >838 maintain: .858 LA U (A) v...— Cumulative average residual (U,) .N . n .a .a unw nnm uwo Lm L0 in. o m :0 3.. no Pm me 3035 8.220 8 8.: Am. mocaomu mcomzm m. mmBm. 82838 3mg... .35st 83mm? man $83an 30:. :._.:m >3:£3m3 o: w80x 3.08 8 Zo<< 3835203.: 3833831 Max:038 32:5? dofimmcacmZ Bow: 73. $8138 U< 09.3.3.0? 8882: «38:8 0m 88 883%“. SE “Haas—32¢ 263% 8855—8 won ":0 8:: 833% 0:. 8:8. 88 Emfidm 93:: 8882: 98¢ E83 88 28: 0:. :5 83 87838 088583058. 3958 mm». Mb» Ea wk: 8:92 ":3 :6 383% 883.58 5 9:... No 3033 8:08 8 =5 85 “:0 5:88; 8855 wow u: 8:8 85 m9 co": £888 0:, Q2328 8:552. .28 on: :88? an 33:53 828;. 8 :8 8:38 88- 888. Ed” 98 252.8 :5" 5 0:7. 9:9: 5 8202: 0m :5 8:8 £8 :5 3:8 838: :5 25088303 38 SE :5 @3835“ 38 «8301:»: 85 88:8. .95. :9 88:8 8»? 8 88. ":3 3o 8—: 25:3 885: mom :5 an. 539 cm 3:... 88358 8 3:. 8 NW <38 5 2:88 3» :5 8:" 38. 5.92. max mammnfl ":3 ":08 8 8836? m 858 5885393. 8:35 8 3.5 Ema—8r 5 ":0 855% 88888 cm m 8:885. 832:2». 95am :5 <38 5:52:20? 828255 N. 85. 203 :63 EmEd use.» 2:: .355 mm 9:”: £8: a: 8:8 80 @8353 8. mass? :8 58mg» 8832a 303mm 283:»; 08:1: :6 ":80 3 85 38:8 \ 7% TABLE 5.3 /§'<3/ Analysis of Residuals in Months Surrounding Stock Splits an the NYSE, 1927— 1959 mm SPLITS FOLLOWED BY SPLITS FOLLOWED BY (1) (2) DIVIDENI?3‘)’INCREASES" DIVIDEND "DECREASES" ALL SPLITS (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) M N (9) 1 05 TH AVngGE CUMUbfTIVE SAMF’klE+ SIZE AVERAGE CUMULATIVE SAMPLE SIZE AVE_RAGE CUMULATIVE SAMFSL? SIZE _22: 2:4 0.0033 0.0033 252 0.0054 0.0054 866 _27 0.0068 0.0143 617 0.0030 0.0063 253 0.0018 0.0072 870 _26 0.0054 . 8 0.0007 0.0070 253 0.0050 0.0122 871 _25 0.0042 619 0.0085 0.0155 253 0.0063 0.0185 872 _24 0.0020 . 621 0.0089 0.0244 254 0.0056 0.0241 875 _ . 0.0259 623 0.0026 0.0270 256 0.0021 0 0263 879 ‘3 0.0315 624 0.0028 0.0298 256 0.0047 00310 880 _21 0.0049 0.0388 628 0.0028 0.0326 256 0.0060 0.0370 884 _20 0.0044 633 0.0131 0.0457 257 0.0073 0.0443 890 _19 0.0110 0.0592 634 0.0005 0.0463 257 0.0033 0.0476 891 48 o 0076 o. 636 0.0102 0.0565 258 0.0108 0.0584 894 _17 0.0072 .0668 644 0.0089 0.0654 260 0.0080 0.0664 904 _16 0.0035 (0.0739 650 0.0111 0.0765 260 0.0083 0.0746 910 qs 0.0135 .0775 655 0.0009 0.0774 260 0.0028 0.0774 915 44 0.0135 659 0.0101 0.0875 260 0.0125 0.0900 919 ‘13 0.0148 0.119: 662 0.0100 0.0975 263 0.0125 0.1026 925 _12 0.0138 . 665 0.0099 0.1074 264 0.0134 0.1159 929 — . 0.1330 669 0.0107 0.1181 266 0.0129 0 1288 935 11 0.0098 0.1428 672 0.0103 0.1285 268 0 0099 0.1387 940 -10 0.0103 0.1532 672 0.0082 0.1367 268 0.0097 0.1485 940 T 9 0.0167 0.1698 672 0.0152 0.1520 268 0.0163 0.1647 940 : 8 0.0163 0.1862 672 0.0140 0.1660 268 0.0157 01804 940 _ 7 0.0159 0.2021 672 0.0083 0.1743 268 0.0138 0.1942 940 _ 6 0.0194 0.2215 672 0.0106 0.1849 268 0.0169 0.2111 940 — 5 0.0194 0.2409 672 0.0100 0.1949 268 0.0167 0 2278 940 - 4 0.0260 0.2669 672 0.0104 0.2054 268 0.0216 02494 940 _ g 672 0.0204 0.2258 268 0.0289 0.2783 940 _ 1 0.0199 . 672 0.0296 0.2554 268 0.0363 0.3147 940 . 0.3582 672 0.0176 0.2730 268 0.0192 0.3339 940 —————————————————————-—————ng7 I SPLITS FOLLOWED BY SPLITS FOLLOWED BY DIVIDEND "INCREASES" DIVIDEND "DECREASES" ALL SPLITS (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) MONTH AVERAGE CUMULATIVE SAMPLE SIZE AVERAGE CUMULATIVE SAMPLE SIZE AVERAGE CUMULATIVE SAMPLE SIZE 5 5; u; N; e? u; N; 53 u, N, 0 0.0131 0.3713 672 - 0.0090 0.2640 268 0.0068 0.3407 940 1 0.0016 0.3729 672 - 0.0088 0.2552 268 — 0.0014 0.3393 940 2 0.0052 0.3781 672 — 0.0024 0.2528 268 0.0031 0.3424 940 3 0.0024 0.3805 672 — 0.0089 0.2439 268 — 0.0008 0.3416 940 4 0.0045 0.3851 672 — 0.0114 0.2325 268 0.0000 0.3416 940 5 0.0048 0.3898 672 —0.0003 0.2322 268 0.0033 0.3449 940 6 0.0012 0.3911 672 — 0.0038 0.2285 268 - 0.0002 0.3447 940 7 0.0008 0.3919 672 ~ 0.0106 0.2179 268 — 0.0024 0.3423 940 8 - 0.0007 0.3912 672 — 0.0024 0.2155 268 — 0.0012 0.3411 940 9 0.0039 0.3951 672 — 0.0065 0.2089 268 0.0009 0.3420 940 10 — 0.0001 0.3950 672 — 0.0027 0.2062 268 — 0.0008 0.3412 940 11 0.0027 0.3977 672 — 0.0056 0.2006 268 0.0003 0.3415 940 12 0.0018 0.3996 672 — 0.0043 0.1963 268 0.0001 0.3416 940 13 — 0.0003 0.3993 666 0.0014 0.1977 264 0.0002 0.3418 930 14 0.0006 0.3999 653 0.0044 0.2021 258 0.0017 0.3435 911 15 — 0.0037 0.3962 645 0.0026 0.2047 258 — 0.0019 0.3416 903 16 0.0001 0.3963 635 — 0.0040 0.2007 257 — 0.0011 0.3405 892 17 0.0034 0.3997 633 — 0.001 1 0.1996 256 0.0021 0.3426 889 18 -0.0015 0.3982 628 0.0025 0.2021 255 — 0.0003 0.3423 883 19 — 0.0006 0.3976 620 - 0.0057 0.1964 251 - 0.0021 0.3402 871 20 — 0.0002 0.3974 604 0.0027 0.1991 246 0.0006 0.3409 850 21 - 0.0037 0.3937 595 — 0.0073 0.1918 245 — 0.0047 0.3361 840 22 0.0047 0.3984 593 — 0.0018 0.1899 244 0.0028 0.3389 837 23 — 0.0026 0.3958 593 0.0043 0.1943 242 — 0.0006 0.3383 835 24 — 0.0022 0.3936 587 0.0031 0.1974 238 — 0.0007 0.3376 825 25 0.0012 0.3948 583 — 0.0037 0.1936 237 - 0.0002 0.3374 820 26 - 0.0058 0.3890 582 0.0015 0.1952 236 — 0.0037 0.3337 818 27 — 0.0003 0.3887 582 0.0082 0.2033 235 0.0021 0.3359 817 28 0.0004 0.3891 580 — 0.0023 0.2010 236 - 0.0004 0.3355 816 29 0.0012 0.3903 580 — 0.0039 0.1971 235 - 0.0003 0.3352 815 30 — 0.0033 0.3870 579 — 0.0025 0.1946 ‘ 235 — 0.0031 0.3321 814 W SOURCE: Eugene F. Fama, Lawrence Fisher, Michael Jensen, and Richard Roll, "The Adjustment of Stock Market Prices to New Information," International Eco- FIG/THC Review 10 (February 1969): 10—1 1. Reprinted by permission. \ (x <3 Iocmm who ‘9633 mmmflzmfi 3w 9.5.an £30333: ball] 4 4| 4 u 4 IJllJ. I—vl dlll] .o~.. .. . ._ a . . . .. u .. . .. . .. . e o l o- o g u u m e V A JON 1 Jo» lnw 1mm -No Lm Lo :m o m .o 2.. No um wo 2.03: 353m 8 mu... 3. Eocmm mhc ><m~mnm $533? was D\.S.Qm=& :DmnEmufi: .05 .ON m. d U HI. m o e g m e V A 1 Ll F F _ p » [Fl Lyl Iww unm lNo Lm Lo um O a do .m no nmwo .5023 35:5 8 3.: Am. mac..an 39:8 mbmlmba =03 mcmmam _u. mmam. E52538 392. $038. $38? man 3833 mo? 525 2:53.91 0* Manx 110mm 8 Zm<< 333.6209: 38:53.25 5.953% main? 8.35252 :59“ Tm? 381:an c< omnawao? ._. w _.__....._.lw——~.—.———— WM. .m ".WVH Eocmm who 0:35m:.<m LimaQO 3335? 3‘ Pfdgq £3933“: $51 . fl 1. l 0 ml Cumulative average residual (U I) m Cumulative average residual (U w c.) l N N l o Inm Inm INC Lm — < Ila. 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Chapter 5 Efficient Capital Markets - Mum WQQZbkflzvN/fim...

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