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Valuation - Comparables B/S Assets LTD NetWorth I/S...

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Comparables Oil #1 Oil #2 Target Junior B/S Assets 300 380 160 LTD 100 0 5 NetWorth 120 175 80 I/S Revenues 420 850 350 EBITDA 55 130 45 NI 20 75 30 Market Data EPS 0.67 2.14 3.00 Price/Earnings 21 14.5 n/a Shares 30 35 10 Members 600 1,100 500 Price 14.07 31.03 MarketCap 422.1 1,086.1 Valuation Average Implied Value PER 21 14.5 17.75 533 Market/EBITDA 7.67 8.35 8.01 361 Market/Sales 1.01 1.28 1.14 399 Market/Book 3.52 6.21 4.86 389 Market/Member 0.70 0.99 0.85 423
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Discounted cash flow analysis Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Projection Revenues $100 $140 $210 $250 $290 $380 $500 $650 $900 - COGS -230 -240 -260 -275 -290 -310 -350 -400 -470 = GP -130 -100 -50 -25 0 70 150 250 430 - OPEX 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 = EBIT -130 -100 -50 -25 0 70 150 250 430 - Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 172 = EBIAT -130 -100 -50 -25 0 70 150 224 258 + Depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - CapExp - Increase in NWC -10 -4 -7 -4 -4 -9 -12 -15 -25 = FCF 0 -140 -104 -57 -29 -4 61 138 209 233 + Terminal value 2000 Discount 15% x factor 1.00 0.87 0.76 0.66 0.57 0.50 0.43 0.38 0.33 0.28 = PV (CF) 0 -122 -79 -37 -17 -2 26 52 68 66 PV (Terminal) 569 Sum PV(CF) -44 Sum PV(Terminal) 569 NPV 525 NOL Calculation EBIT -130 -100 -50 -25 0 70 150 250 430 NOL Used 0 0 0 0 0 70 150 185 0 NOL Increase 130 100 50 25 0 0 0 0 0 Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 172 NOL Beginning 100 100 230 330 380 405 405 335 185 0 NOL Ending 100 230 330 380 405 405 335 185 0 0 NWC Required Beginning NWC 0 10 14 21 25 29 38 50 65 Ending NWC 10% 10 14 21 25 29 38 50 65 90 Change 10 4 7 4 4 9 12 15 25 WACC Tax Rate 40%
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