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Renewable+Energy+Tim+Lipman - Renewable Energy: Progress...

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Unformatted text preview: Renewable Energy: Progress and Challenges Guest Lecture for ES10 September 26, 2008 Tim Lipman, PhD telipman@berkeley.edu Transportation Sustainability Research Center University of California, Berkeley Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Key Points Renewable Energy Costs Have Declined Steadily Wind Power is Now Cost Competitive Solar and Wind Power Production Are Growing Rapidly 24 U.S. States Have RPS Policies Hydrogen and Flow Batteries are Emerging Energy Storage Options for Intermittent Renewables Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Global Energy Supply Mix (and EIA forecast for 2030) Source: EIA, NREL Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Global Renewables Picture Note: Excludes Hydro Source: NREL Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley U.S. Energy Supply Mix (and EIA forecast for 2030) Source: EIA, NREL Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Renewable Energy Cost Trends Source: NREL Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Solar Photovoltaics Several different technologies Crystalline, thin film, organic, emerging techs. Thin film less efficiency but costs can be lower and can be better building-integrated (e.g. "solar shingles") Cost decrease of ~80% since early 1980s but still relatively high cost DOE Solar America Initiative Goal to reduce costs of grid-tied systems from $6.25/Watt in 2000 to $3.30/Watt by 2015 Would reduce electricity cost from $0.25/kWh to $0.09/kWh Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Solar PV Production Source: Kammen, 2007 Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Solar PV is Following Classic 80% Experience (or "Learning") Curve Source: NREL Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley New Solar "Trees" at UCSD Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Solar Thermal Various technologies (trough or dish, steam or Stirling) New 500 MW (19 km2) Stirling engine/dish solar thermal tower project in the Mojave desert Stirling Energy Systems with Southern California Edison Expected to be online in 2009 A second project with San Diego Gas and Electric will produce a reported 300 to 900 MW Cost picture is somewhat murky, but currents ests. are $0.11/kWh for Ausra trough technology) Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Wind Turbine sizes have steadily increased, improving economics for utility-scale projects Average turbine in 2006 (1.5 MW) twice as tall as in 1996 Now getting up to 5 MW and as tall as Seattle Space Needle! Wind can also be "distributed" or "customer sited" DOE program goal was to reduce distributed wind costs to $0.10-15/kWh from a current level of $0.1722/kWh (Class 3 site) Appears to have been achieved, with costs now estimated at $0.10-11/kWh for residential and small business scale systems (<10kW-100kW) (U.S. DOE) Improvements realized in cost, efficiency, ease of installation, and noise Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Wind Costs have fallen dramatically from early 1980s, from about $0.80/kWh to as low as $0.03-.04/kWh in attractive areas today (for utility scale projects) Wind is least cost resource in some areas, particularly when environmental externalities are included 30% of 2007 electricity capacity additions in the U.S. were wind (was 19% in 2006) Annual estimates of over $4B in investment and 10,000 new job-years in U.S. alone But there still is only about 12-13 GW total, or less than 1% of total electricity -- DOE stretch goal is 20% Grid integration challenge at higher penetrations Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Wind Power Production Source: Kammen, 2007 Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Hydro-Power Major distinction between large hydro and small "run of river" hydro Large hydro typically not considered renewable or allowed in RPS programs Can be controversial environmentally with regard to impacts on fisheries Pumped hydro storage (sometimes called "micro hydro") can be low-cost storage for intermittent renewables but requires favorable topography Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Geothermal Taps into underground hot water reservoirs to produce power that is clean and renewable Goal is to get to power production at $0.05/kWh (DOE) and produce up to 40 GW economically (compared with less than 3 GW today) Most of the resource is in the west, with 6% of CA's power, 10% in N. Nevada, and 25% in Hawaii Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Biomass Can be used for electricity production or vehicle fuels (ethanol, hydrogen, and others) Large resource both in the U.S. and globally Energy crops, agricultural and forestry wastes, municipal solid waste Current energy crops have questionable environmental benefits Conversion of ag. and other wastes to electricity through anaerobic digester gas is a winner, esp. for GHGs where emissions can actually be negative (convert methane into CO2) Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Ocean Tidal Power Draws energy from ocean currents, somewhat akin to wind power Theoretical global potential could be around 200 GW Multiple technologies under development Prototypes being tested or planned in Norway, Ireland, Canada, and Wales Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Levelized Electricity Costs Source: U.S. DOE, 2001 (from Kammen and Paca, 2004) Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Levelized Electricity Costs with Externality Ranges Included Source: U.S. DOE, 2001 (from Kammen and Paca, 2004) Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Renewable Energy Map Source: NREL Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Washington: 15% by 2020 Renewable Electricity Standards MN: 27.4% by 2025* IA: 2% by 1999** MT: 15% by 2015 WI: 10% by 2015 NY: 24% by 2013 ME: 30% by 2000** MA: 4% by 2009 RI: 16% by 2019 CT: 10% by 2010 NJ: 22.5% by 2020 DE: 10% by 2019 MD: 7.5% by 2019 D.C: 11% by 2022 PA: 8% by 2020 IL: 8% by 2013** NV: 20% by 2015 CO: 16.1% by 2020* CA: 20% by 2010 AZ: 15% by 2025 NM:16.2% by 2020* HI: 20% by 2020 TX: 5,880 MW (~5.5%) by 2015 Standard Standard and Goal RE Goal 21 States + D.C. Source: Union of Concerned Scientists Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley However.... Source: CEC, 2006 Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Renewable Energy Funds Oregon: $95 million Minnesota: $200 million Montana: $14 million Wisconsin: $21 million New York: $89 million Ohio: $25 million MA: $494 million RI: $30 million CT: $248 million NJ: $286 million Delaware: $18 million Pennsylvania: $67 million California: $2,048 million Arizona: $234 million Illinois: $114 million 15 States = $4 billion by 2017 12 States with Standards and Funds Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Source: UCS Renewable Energy Expected From State Standards and Funds* 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 New renewable energy supported: - 46,625 MW by 2020 CO2 reductions: 109 MMTCO2E Equivalent to: - 5.2 billion more trees - 17.8 million less cars Other** CA NV AZ & NM WA CO TX MN IA & WI MD PA NJ NY CT & RI MA ME Megawatts 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 *Projected development assuming states achieve annual renewable energy targets. 2005 2010 2015 2020 **Includes Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Montana, Ohio, Oregon, and Washington D.C. Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Source: UCS Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley New CA IOU Efficiency Program California IOUs have agreed to an energy efficiency plan that would require: All new residential construction to be zero net energy starting in 2020 All new commercial construction to be zero net energy starting in 2030 Appears challenging for multi-story housing and mid and high-rise office buildings, but an interesting development to be sure http://www.californiaenergyefficiency.com Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Some Renewables Are Intermittent Unlike traditional fossil and nuclear generation, many forms of renewable energy are not "firm" or "dispatchable" Solar has good coincidence with grid peaks, but wind is more variable Energy storage can be used to "firm" up renewables, esp. wind, at high penetration Pumped hydro, flow batteries, compressed air, perhaps hydrogen can all be used Better forecasting is helping with grid integration Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Energy Storage for Renewables Liquid Electrolyte Flow Batteries Are an Interesting and Emerging Option (e.g. Vanadium Redox, ZnBr) Source: VRB Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Energy Storage for Renewables Ireland Case - Sorne Hill: 32 MW of wind commissioned in Oct. 2006 (40% capacity factor) 12 MWh VRB (vanadium redox) battery system installed in late 2007 Target 6-7 year payback (15% IRR) Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Energy Storage for Renewables Hydrogen electrolyzer systems are another interesting type of ESS for renewables Advantages: Seasonal storage possible (albeit at a cost), use of H2 as vehicle fuel, potential low costs in the future Disadvantages: low round trip (e-> H2 -> e-) efficiency, electrolyzer performance has room for improvement (esp. durability), high costs at present, water needs Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Source: NREL Sierra Nevada Brewery Fuel Cell Project 1 MW of molten carbonate fuel cells at Sierra Nevada Brewery in Chico, California Online in 2005 $7 million project with approx. 5-6 year payback time (includes incentives) Brewery waste goes into aerobic digester to produce a hydrogen-rich gas Plan to displace about 2540% of natural gas fuel input with digester gas (2 of 4 FCs are running on ~20% digester gas at present) Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley New SNBC 1.3 MW Solar Project In 2007/2008, SNBC is adding 1.3 MW of solar PV, which will provide about 1/3 of the company's electricity needs Project in two phases, first complete in December and the second by mid-2008 6,800 185-Wp Mitsubishi panels Total solar and fuel cell power generation of 2.3 MW provides most of SNBC's power needs New SNBC Bottling Plant 1200 bottles per minute! Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Daimler "F-Cell" Vehicle Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Daimler "F-Cell" Vehicle Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley PEM Fuel Cell Diagram Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Hydrogen Vehicles Make Deep Cuts in Carbon Emissions Possible Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley GHGs % Change from Convetional RFG N G ce nt ra -120 -100 N 100 G N -80 -60 -40 -20 ce N G ce nt r al w /s te am H 2 G N G am 2 H /s te L w lra But Hydrogen is Not Always Good for the Env't, Depending on How It is Made Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley nt ra l nt H 2 st L at H io 2 N n G El st G ec at H tr io 2 ol n . U El L S ec H m tr 2 ix ol . U G El S ec H m 2 tr ix ol . C L El C H ec N 2 tr G ol El . G ec C H C tr N 2 ol G . N El uc L ec H le tr 2 ar ol El . N ec G uc tr H le ol 2 ar . So El ec la L tr r H ol PV 2 . So G la H r 2 PV M eO Et L H O H H 2 Et R ef C O or H or n m C el er lu R ef lo or si c m er R ef or m er G ce l- 20 40 60 80 0 G GREET 1.6 LEM 2003 New Research Program With Toyota Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley ...
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This document was uploaded on 07/22/2009.

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