SBE10 CP18

SBE10 CP18 - Chapter 18 Forecasting Chapter 18 Forecasting...

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Chapter 18 Forecasting Chapter 18 Forecasting Case Problem 1: Forecasting Sales 1. Month 1 corresponds to January for year 1, month 2 corresponds to February for year 1, and so on. A graph of the time series is shown below: 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Month Sales 2. Analysis of seasonality: Month Seasonal-Irregular Component Values Seasonal Index January 1.445 1.441 1.44 February 1.301 1.297 1.30 March 1.344 1.343 1.34 April 1.047 1.034 1.04 May 1.044 1.054 1.05 June .779 .801 .80 July .882 .834 .83 August .857 .848 .85 September .618 .638 .63 October .725 .675 .70 November .843 .862 .85 December 1.137 1.180 1.16 CP - 70
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Chapter 18 Forecasting The deseasonalized time series is shown below: t Deseasonalized Sales t Deseasonalized Sales 1 168.06 19 189.16 2 180.77 20 189.41 3 173.13 21 193.65 4 171.15 22 185.71 5 175.24 23 196.47 6 175.00 24 198.28 7 174.70 25 195.83 8 178.82 26 196.15 9 174.60 27 197.76 10 185.71 28 197.12 11 178.82 29 200.00 12 177.59 30 200.00 13 182.64 31 200.00 14 183.08 32 204.71 15 184.33 33 200.00 16 185.58 34 211.43 17 183.81 35 203.53 18 186.25 36 202.59 The trend line fitted to the deseasonalized time series is T t = 169.499 + 1.02 t 3. Sales forecasts
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SBE10 CP18 - Chapter 18 Forecasting Chapter 18 Forecasting...

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