math-g7-m5-teacher-materials (2).pdf - New York State...

New York State Common Core
7
GRA D E
Mathematics Curriculum
GRADE 7 • MODULE 5
Table of Contents 1
Statistics and Probability
Module Overview .................................................................................................................................................. 3
Topic A: Calculating and Interpreting Probabilities ( 7.SP.C.5 , 7.SP.C.6 , 7.SP.C.7 , 7.SP.C.8a , 7.SP.C.8b ) ............. 9
Lesson 1: Chance Experiments ............................................................................................................... 11
Lesson 2: Estimating Probabilities by Collecting Data ............................................................................ 22
Lesson 3: Chance Experiments with Equally Likely Outcomes ............................................................... 33
Lesson 4: Calculating Probabilities for Chance Experiments with Equally Likely Outcomes ................. 42
Lesson 5: Chance Experiments with Outcomes That Are Not Equally Likely ......................................... 53
Lesson 6: Using Tree Diagrams to Represent a Sample Space and to Calculate Probabilities ............... 63
Lesson 7: Calculating Probabilities of Compound Events ....................................................................... 72
Topic B: Estimating Probabilities ( 7.SP.C.6 , 7.SP.C.7 , 7.SP.C.8c ) ........................................................................ 83
Lesson 8: The Difference Between Theoretical Probabilities and Estimated Probabilities .................... 85
Lesson 9: Comparing Estimated Probabilities to Probabilities Predicted by a Model ........................... 95
Lessons 10–11: Conducting a Simulation to Estimate the Probability of an Event .............................. 100
Lesson 12: Applying Probability to Make Informed Decisions ............................................................. 121
Mid-Module Assessment and Rubric ................................................................................................................ 130
Topics A through B (assessment 1 day)
Topic C: Random Sampling and Estimating Population Characteristics ( 7.SP.A.1 , 7.SP.A.2 ) ........................... 143
Lesson 13: Populations, Samples, and Generalizing from a Sample to a Population ........................... 145
Lesson 14: Selecting a Sample .............................................................................................................. 156
Lesson 15: Random Sampling ............................................................................................................... 166
Lesson 16: Methods for Selecting a Random Sample .......................................................................... 179
Lesson 17: Sampling Variability ............................................................................................................ 190
Lesson 18: Sampling Variability and the Effect of Sample Size ............................................................ 203
Lesson 19: Understanding Variability When Estimating a Population Proportion ............................... 211
1
Each lesson is ONE day, and ONE day is considered a 45-minute period.
© 2015 Great Minds eureka-math.org
Module 5 : Statistics and Probability
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.
G7-M5-TE-1.3.0-10.2015
1

7 •5 Module Overview
NYS COMMON CORE MATHEMATICS CURRICULUM
Lesson 20: Estimating a Population Proportion ................................................................................... 221
Topic D: Comparing Populations ( 7.SP.B.3 , 7.SP.B.4 ) ....................................................................................... 236
Lesson 21: Why Worry About Sampling Variability? ............................................................................ 237
Lessons 22–23: Using Sample Data to Compare the Means of Two or More Populations .................. 250
End-of-Module Assessment and Rubric ............................................................................................................ 279
Topics A through D (assessment 1 day)
© 2015 Great Minds eureka-math.org
Module 5 : Statistics and Probability
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.
G7-M5-TE-1.3.0-10.2015
2

7 •5 Module Overview
NYS COMMON CORE MATHEMATICS CURRICULUM
Grade 7
•
Module 5
Statistics and Probability
OVERVIEW
In this module, students begin their study of probability, learning how to interpret probabilities and how to
compute probabilities in simple settings. They also learn how to estimate probabilities empirically. The
concept of probability provides a foundation for the thinking required to make inferential reasoning that is
developed in the second half of this module. Additionally, students build on their knowledge of data