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Chapter 1 Concepts in Risk Management

Chapter 1 Concepts in Risk Management - CONCEPTS IN RISK...

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Sverdrup P. L. Clemens & R. R. Mohr November 1993 7 th Edition REVISED for UC System Safety I 1 CONCEPTS IN RISK MANAGEMENT
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TOPICS COVERED… What is risk? How is risk assessed? How are risk tolerance limits decided? How is risk managed? Who best assesses and manages high-tech risk? What's the cost of risk assessment and management? What abuses are prevalent in risk assessment and management? 2
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3 CHARACTERISTICS OF RISK IN MODERN SYSTEMS… Complex Systems ............. Difficult failure modeling Energy-intense systems...Large failure penalties Single, one-of-a-kind units or small fleets ........ Sparse failure data to support analyses Intense public interest ...... Vulnerable reputation CHARACTERISTIC ................. PROBLEM
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ISN’T CODE CONFORMANCE SUFFICIENT…? Codeworthiness rarely guarantees against co-existing faults / failures at scattered points within a system. Codeworthy systems do fail and… …damage equipment… …injure personnel. 4 Code conformance is NECESSARY but NOT SUFFICIENT!
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Hierarchy of Concepts… • RISK MANAGEMENT • Laissez Faire / Benign Neglect / Optimism • Worry & Suffer / Pessimism • “Traditional” Methods — Conformance to Codes, Standards, & Regulations, Supported by Inspections • “Fly-Crash-Fix-Fly-Crash…” / SWAG • Contract to Others / Insure / Hire Consultants • Practice System Safety • A Management Doctrine which mandates that hazards be found and that risks be controlled — AND — • A collection of Analytical Approaches with which to practice that Doctrine 5 THIS IS SYSTEM SAFETY !
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