Chapter 1 Concepts in Risk Management

Chapter 1 Concepts in Risk Management - CONCEPTS IN RISK...

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Sverdrup P. L. Clemens & R. R. Mohr November 1993 7 th Edition REVISED for UC System Safety I 1 CONCEPTS IN RISK MANAGEMENT
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TOPICS COVERED… What is risk? How is risk assessed? How are risk tolerance limits decided? How is risk managed? Who best assesses and manages high-tech risk? What's the cost of risk assessment and management? What abuses are prevalent in risk assessment and management? 2
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3 CHARACTERISTICS OF RISK IN MODERN SYSTEMS… Complex Systems. ............ Difficult failure modeling Energy-intense systems. ..Large failure penalties Single, one-of-a-kind units or small fleets. ....... Sparse failure data to support analyses Intense public interest. ..... Vulnerable reputation CHARACTERISTIC ................. PROBLEM
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ISN’T CODE CONFORMANCE SUFFICIENT…? Codeworthiness rarely guarantees against co-existing faults / failures at scattered points within a system. Codeworthy systems do fail and… …damage equipment… …injure personnel. 4 Code conformance is NECESSARY but NOT SUFFICIENT!
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Hierarchy of Concepts… • RISK MANAGEMENT • Laissez Faire / Benign Neglect / Optimism • Worry & Suffer / Pessimism • “Traditional” Methods — Conformance to Codes, Standards, & Regulations, Supported by Inspections • “Fly-Crash-Fix-Fly-Crash…” / SWAG • Contract to Others / Insure / Hire Consultants • Practice System Safety • A Management Doctrine which mandates that hazards be found and that risks be controlled — AND — • A collection of Analytical Approaches with which to practice that Doctrine 5 THIS IS SYSTEM SAFETY !
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THE RISK MANAGEMENT DOCTRINE… 6 IDENTIFY ALL HAZARDS FOR EACH TARGET RESOLVE EXCESS RESIDUAL RISK ASSESS RISKS (PROBABILITY & SEVERITY) DEFINE RISK TOLERANCE LIMITS ESTABLISH AUTHORITY / RESPONSIBILITY DECIDE ON “TARGETS” Personnel? …Equipment? …Product? …Productivity? …Environment? …others? Who finds hazards? …decides risk tolerance limits? …assesses risk? …reduces excess risk? …accepts residual risk? How much risk is acceptable? At what risk level must we work to resolve excess residual risk? What are the threats to each of the targets? How much risk do the hazards pose? Reduce? …avoid? …transfer? …accept? REPEAT FOR ALL MISSION PHASES OVER THE FULL LIFE CYCLE DEVELOP A CREDO THEN Design …Production/Construction …Delivery …Installation …Shakedown …Routine Operation …Stressed Operation …Calibration …Shutdown …Emergency Shutdown …Maintenance …Decommissioning …etc. VERIFY IMPLEMENTATION Countermeasures in place?
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EXAMPLE CREDO… “In no case may risks exceed bounds stipulated by regulatory agencies, imposed by the contract which governs our work, or dictated by sound professional practice. And in no case may work proceed under conditions or in circumstances which do not conform to the requirements of the contract or to the regulations promulgated by the cognizant agencies.” 7 Dr. Jack D. Whitfield Sverdrup Corporation
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SOME IMPORTANT DEFINITIONS… 8 TARGET : A thing of value, to be protected…e.g.,
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This note was uploaded on 08/17/2009 for the course MECH 652 taught by Professor Sverdrup during the Spring '09 term at University of Cincinnati.

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Chapter 1 Concepts in Risk Management - CONCEPTS IN RISK...

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