businesscyclefacts

businesscyclefacts - F. Business Cycle Facts UCLA Winter...

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F. Business Cycle Facts UCLA Winter 2009 Professor Mark Wright
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In this section, you will learn… z What is a business cycle? z Facts about the business cycle z How the short run differs from the long run z Supply shocks and business cycles z Readings: Chapter 9
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What are business cycles? z We define “potential GDP”, or “trend GDP”, as the level of GDP that can be produced when all factors of production are fully employed z “Full employment” is defined to be the case when capital is being utilized at it’s “normal level”, and unemployment is at it’s “natural rate of unemployment” z A “business cycle” occurs when actual GDP deviates from potential GDP z The Solow-Swan model is a theory of potential GDP z Now we want a theory of business cycles z But first we need to understand the facts about business cycles
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Expansions and Contractions …
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BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES DURATION IN MONTHS Peak Trough Contraction Expansion Cycle Quarterly dates are in parentheses Peak to Trough Previous trough to this peak Trough from Previous Trough Peak from Previous Peak June 1857(II) October 1860(III) April 1865(I) June 1869(II) October 1873(III) March 1882(I) March 1887(II) July 1890(III) January 1893(I) December 1895(IV) June 1899(III) September 1902(IV) May 1907(II) January 1910(I) January 1913(I) August 1918(III) January 1920(I) May 1923(II) October 1926(III) August 1929(III) May 1937(II) February 1945(I) November 1948(IV) July 1953(II) August 1957(III) April 1960(II) December 1969(IV) November 1973(IV) January 1980(I) July 1981(III) July 1990(III) March 2001 (I) December 1854 (IV) December 1858 (IV) June 1861 (III) December 1867 (I) December 1870 (IV) March 1879 (I) May 1885 (II) April 1888 (I) May 1891 (II) June 1894 (II) June 1897 (II) December 1900 (IV) August 1904 (III) June 1908 (II) January 1912 (IV) December 1914 (IV) March 1919 (I) July 1921 (III) July 1924 (III) November 1927 (IV) March 1933 (I) June 1938 (II) October 1945 (IV) October 1949 (IV) May 1954 (II) April 1958 (II) February 1961 (I) November 1970 (IV) March 1975 (I) July 1980 (III) November 1982 (IV) March 1991 (I) -- 18 8 32 18 65 38 13 10 17 18 18 23 13 24 23 7 18 14 13 43 13 8 11 10 8 10 11 16 6 16 8 -- 30 22 46 18 34 36 22 27 20 18 24 21 33 19 12 44 10 22 27 21 50 80 37 45 39 24 106 36 58 12 92 120 -- 48 30 78 36 99 74 35 37 37 36 42 44 46
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This note was uploaded on 08/19/2009 for the course ECON 102 taught by Professor Serra during the Spring '08 term at UCLA.

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businesscyclefacts - F. Business Cycle Facts UCLA Winter...

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