ch02 - In-Class Assignment

ch02 - In-Class Assignment - OPER1401 Operations Management...

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OPER1401 Operations Management I Forecasting Please answer the following question. Show all your work on the sheets provided. 1. Forecast using Exponential Smoothing with a smoothing constant = .35 Heart Absolute Year transplants Forecast Error 1 45 41 4.00 2 50 42.40 7.60 F2 = 41 + .35 * (45 - 41) 3 52 45.06 6.94 F3 = 42.40 + .35 * (50 - 42.40) 4 56 47.49 8.51 F4 = 45.06 + .35 * (52 - 45.06) 5 58 50.47 7.53 F5 = 47.49 + .35 * (56 - 47.49) 6 63 53.10 9.90 F6 = 50.47 + .35 * (58 - 50.47) 44.48 / 6 M.A.D. = 7.41 2. Forecast using Exponential Smoothing with a smoothing constant = .8 Heart Absolute Year transplants Forecast Error 1 45 41 4.00 2 50 44.20 5.80 F2 = 41 + .8 * (45 - 41) 3 52 48.84 3.16 F3 = 44.20 + .8 * (50 - 44.20) 4 56 51.37 4.63 F4 = 48.84 + .8 * (52 - 48.84) 5 58 55.07 2.93 F5 = 51.37 + .8 * (56 - 51.37) 6 63 57.41 5.59 F6 = 55.07 + .8 * (58 - 55.07) 26.10 / 6 M.A.D. = 4.35 3. Forecast using a 3 Year Moving Average
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Heart Absolute Year transplants Forecast Error 1 45 2 50 3
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This note was uploaded on 08/22/2009 for the course OPER 1401 taught by Professor Robshepherd during the Fall '05 term at Niagara College.

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ch02 - In-Class Assignment - OPER1401 Operations Management...

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