Chapter 3 - Lecture Presentation Software to accompany...

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Unformatted text preview: Lecture Presentation Software to accompany Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management Eighth Edition by Frank K. Reilly & Keith C. Brown Chapter 3 Questions to be answered: Why should investors have a global perspective regarding their investments? Chapter 3 - Selecting Investments in a Global Market Questions to be answered: What has happened to the relative size of U.S. and foreign stock and bond markets? Chapter 3 - Selecting Investments in a Global Market Questions to be answered: What are the differences in the rates of return on U.S. and foreign securities markets? Chapter 3 - Selecting Investments in a Global Market Questions to be answered: How can changes in currency exchange rates affect the returns that U.S. investors experience on foreign securities? Chapter 3 - Selecting Investments in a Global Market Questions to be answered: Is there an additional advantage of diversifying in international markets beyond the benefits of domestic diversification? Chapter 3 - Selecting Investments in a Global Market Questions to be answered: What alternative securities are available? What are their cash flow and risk properties? Chapter 3 - Selecting Investments in a Global Market Questions to be answered: What is the historical return and risk characteristics of the major investment instruments? Chapter 3 - Selecting Investments in a Global Market Questions to be answered: What is the relationship among returns for foreign and domestic investment instruments? What is the implication of these relationships for portfolio diversification? Chapter 3 - Selecting Investments in a Global Market Reasons for the expansion of investment opportunities 1. Growth and development of foreign financial markets 2. Advances in telecommunications technology 3. Mergers of firms and security exchanges The Case for Constructing Global Investment Portfolios 1. Ignoring foreign markets can substantially reduce the investment choices for U.S. investors 2. The rates of return on non-U.S. securities often have substantially exceeded those for U.S.-only securities 3. The low correlation between U.S. stock markets and many foreign markets can help to substantially reduce portfolio risk Relative Size of U.S. Financial Markets 1. The share of the U.S. in world stock and bond markets has dropped from about 65 percent of the total in 1969 to about 51 percent in 2003 2. The growing importance of foreign securities in world capital markets is likely to continue Relative Size of U.S. Financial Markets Overall value of the total investable capital market has increased from $2.3 Trillion in 1969 to $70.9 Trillion in 2003 and the U.S. portion has declined to less than half. This trend is likely to continue The Case for Global Investments Rates of return available on non-U.S. securities often exceed U.S. Securities due to higher growth rates in foreign countries, especially the emerging markets The Case for Global Investments Diversification with foreign securities can help reduce portfolio risk because foreign markets have low correlation with U.S. capital markets Global Bond Portfolio Risk 1. Macroeconomic differences cause the correlation of bond returns between the United States and foreign countries to differ 2. The correlation of returns between a single pair of countries changes over time because the factors influencing the correlation change over time Risk of Combined Country Investments Diversified portfolios reduce variability of returns over time Correlation coefficients measure diversification contribution Compare correlation of return among U.S. bonds and stocks with returns on foreign bonds and stocks Global Bond Portfolio Risk Low positive correlation Opportunities for U.S. investors to reduce risk Correlation changes over time Adding non-correlated foreign bonds to a portfolio of U.S. bonds increases the rate of return and reduces the risk of the portfolio Global Equity Portfolio Risk Low positive correlation Opportunities to reduce risk of stock portfolio by including foreign stocks Summary on Global Investing Relatively high rates of return combined with low correlation coefficients indicate that adding foreign stocks and bonds to a U.S. portfolio will reduce risk and may increase its average return Global Investment Choices Fixed-income investments bonds and preferred stocks Equity investments Special equity instruments warrants and options Futures contracts Investment companies Real assets Fixed-Income Investments Contractual payment schedule Recourse varies by instrument Bonds investors are lenders expect interest payment and return of principal Preferred stocks dividends require board of directors approval Savings Accounts Fixed earnings Convenient Liquid Low risk Low rates Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - instruments that require minimum deposits for specified terms, and pay higher rates of interest than savings accounts. Penalty imposed for early withdrawal Money Market Certificates Compete against Treasury bills (T-bills) Minimum $10,000 Minimum maturity of six months Redeemable only at bank of issue Penalty if withdrawn before maturity Capital Market Instruments Fixed income obligations that trade in secondary market U.S. Treasury securities U.S. Government agency securities Municipal bonds Corporate bonds U.S. Treasury Securities Bills, notes, or bonds - depending on maturity Bills mature in less than 1 year Notes mature in 1 - 10 years Bonds mature in over 10 years Highly liquid Backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government U.S. Government Agency Securities Sold by government agencies Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA or Fannie Mae) Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA or Ginnie Mae) Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Not direct obligations of the Treasury Still considered default-free and fairly liquid Municipal Bonds Issued by state and local governments usually to finance infrastructural projects. Exempt from taxation by the federal government and by the state that issued the bond, provided the investor is a resident of that state Two types: General obligation bonds (GOs) Revenue bonds Corporate Bonds Issued by a corporation Fixed income Credit quality measured by ratings Maturity Features Indenture Call provision Sinking fund Corporate Bonds Senior secured bonds most senior bonds in capital structure and have the lowest risk of default Mortgage bonds secured by liens on specific assets Collateral trust bonds secured by financial assets Equipment trust certificates secured by transportation equipment Corporate Bonds Debentures Unsecured promises to pay interest and principal In case of default, debenture owner can force bankruptcy and claim any unpledged assets to pay off the bonds Subordinated bonds Unsecured like debentures, but holders of these bonds may claim assets after senior secured and debenture holders claims have been satisfied Corporate Bonds Income bonds Interest payment contingent upon earning sufficient income Convertible bonds Offer the upside potential of common stock and the downside protection of a bond Usually have lower interest rates Corporate Bonds Warrants Allows bondholder to purchase the firm's common stock at a fixed price for a given time period Interest rates usually lower on bonds with warrants attached Zero coupon bond Offered at a deep discount from the face value No interest during the life of the bond, only the principal payment at maturity Preferred Stock Hybrid security Fixed dividends Dividend obligations are not legally binding, but must be voted on by the board of directors to be paid Most preferred stock is cumulative Credit implications of missing dividends Corporations may exclude 80% of dividend income from taxable income International Bond Investing Investors should be aware that there is a very substantial fixed income market outside the United States that offers additional opportunity for diversification International Bond Investing Bond identification characteristics Country of origin Location of primary trading market Home country of the major buyers Currency of the security denomination Eurobond An international bond denominated in a currency not native to the country where it is issued International Bond Investing Yankee bonds Sold in the United States and denominated is U.S. dollars, but issued by foreign corporations or governments Eliminates exchange risk to U.S. investors International domestic bonds Sold by issuer within its own country in that country's currency Equity Investments Returns are not contractual and may be better or worse than on a bond Equity Investments Common Stock Represents ownership of a firm Investor's return tied to performance of the company and may result in loss or gain Classification of Common Stock Categorized By General Business Line Industrial: manufacturers of automobiles, machinery, chemicals, beverages Utilities: electrical power companies, gas suppliers, water industry Transportation: airlines, truck lines, railroads Financial: banks, savings and loans, credit unions Acquiring Foreign Equities 1. Purchase of American Depository Receipts (ADRs) 2. Purchase of American shares 3. Direct purchase of foreign shares listed on a U.S. or foreign stock exchange 4. Purchase of international mutual funds American Depository Receipts (ADRs) Easiest way to directly acquire foreign shares Certificates of ownership issued by a U.S. bank that represents indirect ownership of a certain number of shares of a specific foreign firm on deposit in a U.S. bank in the firm's home country Buy and sell in U.S. dollars Dividends in U.S. dollars May represent multiple shares Listed on U.S. exchanges Very popular Purchase or Sale of American shares Issued in the United States by transfer agent on behalf of a foreign firm Higher expenses Limited availability Direct Purchase or Sale of Foreign Shares Direct investment in foreign equity markets- difficult and complicated due to administrative, information, taxation, and market efficiency problems Purchase foreign stocks listed on a U.S. exchange limited choice Purchase or Sale of Global Mutual Funds or ETFs Global funds - invest in both U.S. and foreign stocks International funds - invest mostly outside the U.S. Funds can specialize Diversification across many countries Concentrate in a segment of the world Concentrate in a specific country Concentrate in types of markets Exchange-traded funds or ETFs are a recent innovation in the world of index products Special Equity Instruments Equity-derivative securities have a claim on common stock of a firm Options are rights to buy or sell at a stated price for a period of time Warrants are options to buy from the company Puts are options to sell to an investor Calls are options to buy from a stockholder Futures Contracts Exchange of a particular asset at a specified delivery date for a stated price paid at the time of delivery Deposit (10% margin) is made by buyer at contract to protect the seller Commodities trading is largely in futures contracts Current price depends on expectations Financial Futures Recent development of contracts on financial instruments such as T-bills, Treasury bonds, and Eurobonds Traded mostly on Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Allow investors and portfolio managers to protect against volatile interest rates Currency futures allow protection against changes in exchange rates Investment Companies Rather than buy individual securities directly from the issuer they can be acquired indirectly through shares in an investment company Investment companies sell shares in itself and uses proceeds to buy securities Investors own part of the portfolio of investments Investment Companies Money market funds Acquire high-quality, short-term investments Yields are higher than normal bank CDs Typical minimum investment is $1,000 No sales commission charges Withdrawal is by check with no penalty Investments usually are not insured Investment Companies Bond funds Invest in long-term government, corporate, or municipal bonds Bond funds vary in bond quality selected for investment Expected returns vary with risk of bonds Investment Companies Common stock funds Many different funds with varying stated investment objectives Aggressive growth, income, precious metals, international stocks Offer diversification to smaller investors Sector funds concentrate in an industry International funds invest outside the United States Global funds invest in the U.S. and other countries Investment Companies Balanced funds Invest in a combination of stocks and bonds depending on their stated objectives Investment Companies Index Funds These are mutual funds created to equal the performance of a market index like the S&P 500 Investment Companies Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) These are depository receipts for a portfolio of securities deposited at a financial institution in a unit trust that issues a certificate of ownership for the portfolio of stocks The stocks in a portfolio are those in an index like the S&P 500 and dozens of country or industry indexes ETFs can be bought and sold continuously on an exchange like common stock Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Investment fund that invests in a variety of real estate properties Construction and development trusts provide builders with construction financing Mortgage trusts provide long-term financing for properties Equity trusts own various incomeproducing properties Direct Real Estate Investment Purchase of a home Average cost of a single-family house exceeds $100,000 Financing by mortgage requires down payment Homeowner hopes to sell the house for cost plus a gain Direct Real Estate Investment Purchase of raw land Intention of selling in future for a profit Ownership provides a negative cash flow due to mortgage payments, taxes, and property maintenance Risk from selling for an uncertain price and low liquidity Direct Real Estate Investment Land Development Buy raw land Divide into individual lots Build houses or a shopping mall on it Requires capital, time, and expertise Returns from successful development can be significant Direct Real Estate Investment Rental Property Acquire apartment buildings or houses with low down payments Derive enough income from the rents to pay the expenses of the structure, including the mortgage payments, and generate a good return Rental property provides a cash flow and an opportunity to profit from the sale of the property Low-Liquidity Investments Some investments don't trade on securities markets Lack of liquidity keeps many investors away Auction sales create wide fluctuations in prices Without markets, dealers incur high transaction costs Antiques Dealers buy at estate sales, refurbish, and sell at a profit Serious collectors may enjoy good returns Individuals buying a few pieces to decorate a home may have difficulty overcoming transaction costs to ever enjoy a profit Art Investment requires substantial knowledge of art and the art world Acquisition of work from a well-known artist requires large capital commitments and patience High transaction costs Uncertainty and illiquidity Coins and Stamps Enjoyed by many as hobby and as an investment Market is more fragmented than stock market, but more liquid than art and antiques markets Price lists are published weekly and monthly Grading specifications aid sales Wide spread between bid and ask prices Diamonds Can be illiquid Grading determines value, but is subjective Investment-grade gems require substantial investments No positive cash flow until sold Costs of insurance, storage, and appraisal Historical Risk-Returns on Alternative Investments World Portfolio Performance Reilly and Wright (2004) examined the performance of various investment alternatives from the United States, Canada, Europe, Japan, and the emerging markets for the period 19802001 Reilly and Wright's 2004 Study Asset Returns and Total Risk The expected relationship between annual rates of return and total risk (standard deviation) of these securities was confirmed Reilly and Wright's 2004 Study Return and Systematic Risk The systematic risk measure (beta) did a better job of explaining the returns during the period than did the total risk measure The beta risk measure that used the Brinson index as a market proxy was somewhat better than the beta that used the S&P 500 Index Reilly and Wright's 2004 Study Correlations between Asset Returns U.S. equities have a reasonably high correlation with Canadian and U.K. stocks but low correlation with emerging market stocks and Japanese stocks U.S. equities show almost zero correlation with world government bonds, except U.S. bonds Art and Antiques Market data is limited Results vary widely, and change over time, making generalization impossible, but showing a reasonably consistent relationship between risk and return Correlation coefficients vary widely, allowing for great diversification potential Liquidity is still a concern Real Estate Returns are difficult to derive due to lack of consistent data Residential shows lower risk and return than commercial real estate During some short time periods REITs have shown higher returns than stock with lower risk measures Long term returns for real estate are lower than stocks, and have lower risk Real Estate Negative correlation between residential and farm real estate and stocks Low positive correlation between commercial real estate and stocks Potential for diversification The Internet Investments Online http://www.site-by-site.com http://www.moneycafe.com http://www.emgmkts.com http://www.law.duke.edu/globalmark http://www.lebenthal.com http://www.sothebys.com Appendix Chapter 3 Covariance and Correlation Covariance absolute measure of the extent to which two sets of numbers move together over time Covariance COVij ( i - i )( j - j ) = N If we define (i - i ) as i and (j - j) as j , then COVij i j = N Correlation relative measure of a given relationship Correlation rij = COVij i j i = (i - i ) N 2 Future topics Chapter 4 Organization of markets Functioning of security markets Trading systems ...
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This note was uploaded on 08/29/2009 for the course BUS Invt taught by Professor Yost during the Spring '09 term at W. Florida.

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Chapter 3 - Lecture Presentation Software to accompany...

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