ex_Bayes

ex_Bayes - new test is . 05 and the probability that this...

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Probability Trees and Bayes Law 1. In a certain class there are 10 students. Seven of them are females and three males. Each lecture, the professor chooses randomly one student to present an exercise on the board. How- ever he does not select the same student in two consecutive lectures. What is the probability that in two consecutive days two female students are chosen? 1
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2. In certain country there are 3 million people with AIDS out of 300 million inhabitants. A test for AIDS is said to be positive in a person when the result of the test indicates that the individual has AIDS. Otherwise the test is said to be negative for that person. The probability of a false positive (the test is positive even though the individual does not have AIDS) of a
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Unformatted text preview: new test is . 05 and the probability that this test is positive when the person has AIDS is 90%. John Smith went to a clinic and tested negative for AIDS. What is the probability that he has AIDS? 2 3. A total of 46% of the voters of a certain city classify themselves as Independents whereas 30% classify themselves as Liberals and 24% as Conservatives. In a recent local election 35% of Independents, 62% of Liberals and 58% of Conservatives voted. A voter is chosen at random. Given that this person voted in the local election what is the probability that he or she is (a) an Independent? (b) a Liberal? (c) a Conservative? (d) What fraction of voters participated in the election? 3...
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This note was uploaded on 09/05/2009 for the course MATH 218 taught by Professor Haskell during the Fall '06 term at USC.

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ex_Bayes - new test is . 05 and the probability that this...

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