Psychology 365 Lecture 28 (April 1)

Psychology 365 Lecture 28 (April 1) - Outline Judgment...

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Outline Judgment (Chapter 12) Probability and Risk Assessment Take up Pseudo-Quiz Reasoning (Chapter 13) Utility Theory Framing Effects Reading for today: Chapters 12 and 13 Reading for next lecture: Chapter 13
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Big Q: Do humans demonstrate logical judgment? No. Influenced by several factors/biases: judgment influenced by our desire to conserve cognitive effort limits the alternatives we can think of and information we use in making judgment What are the pitfalls or biases in human decision-making? Judgment
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Rates per 100,000,000 (1996): 1. asthma (920) or tornado (44) 2. excess cold (163) or syphilis (200) 3. diabetes (19,000) or suicide (12,000) 4. heart disease (360,000) or lung canc. (37,000) 5. flood (100) or homicide (9,200) 6. syphilis (200) or diabetes (19,000) 7. asthma (920) or botulism (1) 8. poison by vit. (0.5) or lightning (52) 9. tuberculosis (1,800) or homicide (9,200) 10. all accidents (55,000) or stom canc. (46,600) Probability and Risk Assessment
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people tend to overestimate the frequency of events that occur very rarely and underestimate the frequency of events that occur very often people tend to overestimate frequency of events that receive a lot of publicity people tend to underestimate frequency of events that receive little publicity Probability and Risk Assessment
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Biases in Risk Assessment: a voluntary risk is perceived to be less risky (e.g., elective surgery) a natural risk is believed to be less hazardous (e.g., pesticides perceived to be more dangerous than natural toxins in food)
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This note was uploaded on 09/10/2009 for the course PSYCH 365 taught by Professor Penny during the Fall '09 term at University of Calgary.

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Psychology 365 Lecture 28 (April 1) - Outline Judgment...

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