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2009_Budget_Fiscal_Plan - Budget and Fiscal Plan 2009/10...

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Budget and Fiscal Plan 2009/10 – 2011/12 February 17, 2009
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National Library of Canada Cataloguing in Publication Data British Columbia. Budget and fiscal plan. –- 2002/03/2004/05- Annual Also available on the Internet. Continues: British Columbia. Ministry of Finance and Corporate Relations. Budget ... reports. ISSN 1207-5841 ISSN 1705-6071 = Budget and fiscal plan — British Columbia. 1. Budget — British Columbia — Periodicals. 2. British Columbia — Appropriations and expenditures — Periodicals. I. British Columbia. Ministry of Finance. II. Title. HJ12.B742 352.48’09711’05 C2003-960048-3
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Budget and Fiscal Plan – 2009/10 to 2011/12 TABLE OF CONTENTS Budget and Fiscal Plan 2009/10 – 2011/12 February 17, 2009 Attestation by the Secretary to Treasury Board Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 Part 1: Three-Year Fiscal Plan Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Revenue ............................................................................................................................................... 13 Changes since the first Quarterly Report ..................................................................................... 13 Budget 2009 Plan ............................................................................................................................ 17 Consolidated Revenue Fund Spending .............................................................................................. 22 Protecting Health Care and Education ............................................................................................ 23 Sustaining Social Services ................................................................................................................ 26 Supporting Communities and the Environment ............................................................................ 27 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games ............................................................................... 29 Administrative and Other Savings .................................................................................................. 30 Public Service Transformation Fund ............................................................................................... 31 Service Delivery Agencies .................................................................................................................. 31 Further Efficiencies ............................................................................................................................. 32 Full-Time Equivalents .......................................................................................................................... 32 Capital Spending ................................................................................................................................. 33 Projects over $50 million ................................................................................................................. 38 Provincial Debt ................................................................................................................................... 40 Risks to the Fiscal Plan ....................................................................................................................... 43 Tables: 1.1 Three-Year Fiscal Plan – Operating Statement ................................................................... 7 1.2 Three-Year Fiscal Plan Update – Changes from Budget 2008 .......................................... 8 1.3 Revenue by Source .............................................................................................................. 10 1.4 Expense by Ministry, Program and Agency ........................................................................ 11 1.5 Major Factors Underlying Revenue ..................................................................................... 17 1.6 Personal Income Tax Revenue ............................................................................................ 18 1.7 Corporate Income Tax Revenue .......................................................................................... 19 1.8 Social Service Tax Revenue ................................................................................................. 19 1.9 Health and Social Transfers ................................................................................................. 21 1.10 Sustaining Social Services .................................................................................................... 26 1.11 Supporting Communities and the Environment ................................................................. 28 1.12 Olympics Funding ............................................................................................................... 29 1.13 Managing Down Expenses ................................................................................................. 30 1.14 Administrative Spending – Change from 2008/09 ................................................................ 31 1.15 Full-Time Equivalents (FTEs) – Changes from Budget 2008 ............................................... 32 1.16 Capital Spending .................................................................................................................... 34 1.17 Provincial Transportation Investments .................................................................................. 35 1.18 Capital Expenditure Projects Greater Than $50 million ........................................................ 39 1.19 Provincial Debt Summary ...................................................................................................... 40 1.20 Reconciliation of Summary Results to Provincial Debt Changes .................................... 42 1.21 Provincial Financing .......................................................................................................... 43 1.22 Key Fiscal Sensitivities ...................................................................................................... 44 1.23 Notional Allocations to Contingencies ............................................................................. 46
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ii Table of Contents Budget and Fiscal Plan – 2009/10 to 2011/12 Topic Boxes: Presentation of Provincial Government Debt ................................................................................ 50 The Port Mann Bridge / Highway 1 Project ................................................................................ 52 British Columbia’s Strong Foundation ............................................................................................ 53 Part 2: Tax Measures Tax Measures – Supplementary Information ........................................................................................ 64 October 22 and November 1, 2008 Measures ................................................................................ 64 Budget 2009 Measures ................................................................................................................. 66 Tables: 2.1 Summary of Tax Measures ................................................................................................... 63 2.2 British Columbia Personal Income Tax Cut – Impact on Taxpayers ................................ 65 2.3 Commission Rates ................................................................................................................ 65 Topic Box: Revenue Neutral Carbon Tax .......................................................................................................... 72 Part 3: British Columbia Economic Review and Outlook Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 75 Recent Developments ............................................................................................................................ 76 The Outlook for the External Environment ......................................................................................... 78 United States ..................................................................................................................................... 78 Canada .............................................................................................................................................. 81 Other Economies .............................................................................................................................. 83 Financial Markets ................................................................................................................................... 84 Interest Rates .................................................................................................................................... 84 Exchange Rate ................................................................................................................................. 86 The British Columbia Economic Outlook ............................................................................................ 87 Labour Market .................................................................................................................................. 88 Domestic Demand ........................................................................................................................... 88 Business and Government .............................................................................................................. 90 External Trade and Commodity Markets ........................................................................................ 91 Inflation ............................................................................................................................................. 92
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