Post-Korean Unification Security Landscape

Post-Korean Unification Security Landscape - Kimberly Zhang...

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Kimberly Zhang “Post-Korean Unification Security Landscape” Reading Scenarios for Korean Reunification 1. Approaches to Korean reunification a. US intelligence community i. Postulated and analyzed various scenarios of how Korean unification might unfold ii. Skipped over question of how reunification might take place and focused on range of possible national security strategies that a unified Korea might pursue b. Author’s approach i. Importance of unification in shaping national strategy of unified peninsula has not been addressed 1. Bodies of work on unification and post-unification strategy are disconnected 2. Need to be connected because process of unification will be most decisive influence 2. Reunification scenarios that are predicted for North and South Korea a. Two most common i. North Korean collapse or implosion that leads quickly to reunification (German scenario) ii. Drawn-out peaceful process of coexistence and gradual reunification b. North attacks South, UN Command in South halts attack, counterattacks, and conquers North i. Constitutes reunification by military conquest c. Loose Korean commonwealth in which North Korea comes to economic senses, follows Beijing’s advice d. No reunification at all i. Two Koreas peacefully coexist, threat of war removed, no desire on either side to politically reunify ii. Gained plausibility since June 2000 summit between Kim Dae Jung and Kim Jong Il
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e. All scenarios imply aspect of time or process f. Only two time-line based hypotheses—reunification that happens quickly or reunification that takes a long time 3. Available national security options, seen as unified Korea with democracy led from Seoul a. Continued alliance with US and West i. Hoped for by US, Japanese, Kim Dae Jung, ROK b. Return to historic Sino-Korean pattern of Korean state within China’s orbit i. Beijing’s preferred choice, Japan’s nightmare c. Strategic independence i. Nonaligned Korea pursues independent course after its own interests ii. Choice of Korean analysts
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Post-Korean Unification Security Landscape - Kimberly Zhang...

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