Lec_5_Leading_Lagging_Coincident_Indicators

Lec_5_Leading_Lagging_Coincident_Indicators - EC 400 1...

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Unformatted text preview: EC 400 1 Leading, Lagging and Coincident Indicators The first step in learning to interpret economic data. Measure of overall economic activity Business- cycle peak Business-cycle trough Business- cycle peak Figure 1 time Recession Recovery Recovery Measure of overall economic activity Business- cycle peak Business-cycle trough Business- cycle peak Figure 1 time Recession Recovery Recovery EC 400 2 Figure 2 Natural Logarithm of Real GDP in Chained 2000 Dollars 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 8.2 8.4 8.6 1968I 1971IV 1975II 1979II 1983I 1986IV 1990II 1994II 1998I 2001IV 2005II Year and Quarter Problems • real GDP estimates come with a lag • sometimes real GDP growth is practically zero, but the economy is not entering a recession recession. Figure 2 Natural Logarithm of Real GDP in Chained 2000 Dollars 9.0 9.3 9.5 8.0 8.3 8.5 8.8 1968I 1971IV 1975II 1979I 1983I 1986IV 1990II 1994I 1998I 2001IV 2005II Year and Quarter EC 400 3 Release dates for estimates of Real GDP • advance estimate-- about one month after the quarter....
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This note was uploaded on 09/14/2009 for the course EC 400 taught by Professor Cover during the Spring '09 term at Alabama.

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Lec_5_Leading_Lagging_Coincident_Indicators - EC 400 1...

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