lesson 9-2

# lesson 9-2 - Weather Forecasting Introduction Despite the...

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Weather Forecasting Introduction Despite the fact that about 50% of the time any given weather (3-day or 5-day) forecast in the U.S. will be incorrect, people still look to and depend upon their local meteorologists to offer some insight concerning weather conditions for the days to come. The problem with this is two- fold: (1) people rely too heavily on local weather forecasts, and (2) forecasting weather is not an exact science, rather it is half science and half art. Example of a daily weather forecast map. With all of this in mind, it is even more important to understand what goes into creating a forecast. The more informed you are about forecasting, the more critically you can evaluate weather data for yourself. Since you are already familiar with the technology currently used by meteorologists, let's begin by discussing forecasting methods.

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At this time... read through the WW2010-Online Meteorological Guide provides a great introduction to weather forecasting . Take a few minutes to explore all the subsections for this topic and then answer the following questions. Which of the following is NOT a method used in forecasting? Climatology: use averaged weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast Trends: make a forecast based on the speed and direction that weather systems have already moved Persistence: make a forecast by assuming the current weather conditions will remain the same in the future Prognostication: use past experience and your imagination to make the forecast Analog: make a forecast based on a day in the past that had a similar weather scenario (analog) NWP (numerical weather prediction): use complex computer programs (forecast models) to analyze atmospheric data and make the forecast The following are all important atmospheric surface features to consider when making a forecast: anticyclonic and cyclonic systems, fronts, and drylines. True False When forecasting daytime temperature, if ____ skies are expected then forecast the temperature to be lower than you would normally predict if ____ skies were present. When forecasting nighttime temperatures, the _____ is true. clear; cloudy; same cloudy; clear; same clear; cloudy; opposite cloudy; clear; opposite
If a city is positioned to the west of a high pressure system, then ______ temperatures are likely. If a city is positioned to the _____ of a low pressure system, then colder temperatures are likely. warmer; southeast warmer; west colder; west If snow is on the ground, forecast ______ daytime and nighttime temperatures than you would normally predict if NO snow were present. lower higher Forecast slightly warmer temperatures for a _______ night than for a _____ night. calm; windy windy; calm

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If a cold front is approaching an area with a high moisture content in the air, there is an increased probability of _________________.
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