2_energy,_ghgs,_aq_trends

2_energy,_ghgs,_aq_trends - Energy, GHG, and AQ Trends...

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Energy, GHG, and AQ Trends Daniel Sperling University of California, Davis
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Average global temperature is increasing, due at least in part to increased emissions of CO 2 and other GHGs
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The Carbon Challenge: To reach the stable carbon levels on the left, world emissions need to decline dramatically, as shown on the right. Figure A: Stabilized CO 2 Concentration Levels Fig B: Emission Profiles for Stabilized CO 2 Concentration Levels of Figure A CO2 CONCENTRATION (ppm) FOSSIL CO2 EMISSIONS (GtC/yr)
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Transport is a Large and Increasing Source of Global CO 2 Emissions REGION TRANSPORT SHARE (%) 1990 1995 OECD 26.1 27.6 - North America 27.3 30.2 - Europe 22.7 25.3 - Pacific 21.5 23.1 WORLD TOTAL 19.3 20.2 Source: IEA, 2000
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Select Countries Compared to Kyoto Country Road Transport Emissions Growth (90-96) Kyoto Target Proportional Reductions Canada 11.8% -6% 15.9% France 8.4% 0% 7.7% Italy 13.5% -6.5% 17.6% Japan 20.6% -6% 22.0%
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1990 2000 2010 2020 World Transportation Oil Consumption World Total Oil Consumption Million barrels per day Transport is even more central to world’s petroleum problem … Transport accounts for over half of world’s oil consumption
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World conventional oil production peaks before 2050 in all scenarios (MMB/day) Unconventional Conventional MEA Conventional ROW 0 50 100 150 200 250 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 MMBO/day Base 0 50 100 150 200 250 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Aggressive Reduction
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0 200 300 400 500 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Million Vehicles 100 600 700 1990 Motorcycles Cars Transport energy use and CO 2 emissions are increasing rapidly because vehicle ownership and use is increasing rapidly – a tenfold increase from 1950 to 1990, with another doubling expected within 2 decades. Global Motor Vehicle Population
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Percent Change from 1981 to 2000 in Average Vehicle Characteristics Fuel Economy Weight (lbs) Horsepower O to 60 Time (sec) 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% -25% -50% Percent Change Decrease Increase -0.4% +21% +79% -26%
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2_energy,_ghgs,_aq_trends - Energy, GHG, and AQ Trends...

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