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1_travel_trends - Transportation and Motor Vehicle Trends...

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Transportation and Motor Vehicle Trends: Sustainable?? ECI/ESP 252
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Transportation System Vehicles Mode characteristics Fuels Users Demographics Socioeconomics Varying preferences Infrastructure Guideways Terminals Government Policy and Rules Ownership and mgt Subsidies Rules, laws, enforcement (driving licences, speed limits, etc) Response to equity, environmental, safety, national security concerns
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1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 6 10 7 Growth of the U.S. Transport Infrastructure Canals Rail Roads Air Growth Rate (percent) ) 1836 1891 1946 ( 2002 ) t = 30 years t = 55 years t = 65 years t = ( 70 ) years Total Growth Canals Rail Roads Air Source: Arnulf Grubler , The Rise and Fall of Infrastructure , 1990. kilometers ??
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Evolution of System Infrastructure and Resulting Urban Land Use Patterns, USA I. Walking-Horsecar Era (1800-1900) II. Electric Streetcar Era (1890-1925) III. Recreational Automobile Era (1914-1945) IV. Freeway and Beltway Era (1945-Present) Source: Adams, 1970 Source: Muller, 1998
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Urban population densities are falling everywhere in the world Source: Demographia (2001). pop/sq km (1960) pop/sq km (1990) % chg. (1960-1990) Tokyo 8,565 7,097 -17% New York 2,878 2,086 -28% Paris 6,860 4,614 -33% London 6,539 4,232 -35% Detroit 1,970 1,275 -35% San Francisco-Oakland 1,640 1,602 -2% Washington 2,046 1,373 -33% Melbourne 2,028 1,491 -26% Hamburg 6,827 3,982 -42% Vienna 9,141 6,830 -25% Brisbane 2,095 978 -53% Copenhagen 4,952 3,467 -30% Amsterdam 9,973 5,591 -44% Zurich 5,998 4,708 -22% Frankfurt 8,722 4,661 -47% Data are for “urbanized area” as defined by local and/or national authorities
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Land Use Changes Higher vehicle speeds reduced travel times, opening development of residential areas outside of urban area Users appear to have constant daily travel time budgets Low density development has resulted along freeways and beltways (cannot support transit activity) Suburbs and beltway regions began attracting jobs, increasing suburb to suburb commutes Decentralization has significantly increased VMT
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Benz’s 1888 Motor Carriage Ford’s 1910 Model T
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