lec10-1 - Confirmation Bias and the Four Card Problem...

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Unformatted text preview: Confirmation Bias and the Four Card Problem Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Winter Quarter 2009 3/9/2009 P 355, Miyamoto, Winter '09 2 Outline • 2-4-6 Task and Confirmation Bias • Conditional Reasoning • 4 Card Problem o Typical performance with an abstract version of the problem o Typical performance with a concrete version of the problem o Permission schemas & a test of the permission schema hypothesis P 355, Miyamoto, Winter '09 3 2-4-6 Task • I (the experimenter) have a rule that distinguishes "trin" from "non-trin" sequences of 3 numbers. • Example: 2-4-6 "trin" 1-1-1 "non-trin" • The 2-4-6 Task: 1) Subject asks the experiment whether a particular 3-number sequence is "trin" or "non-trin". 2) The experimenter gives the correct (honest) answer. 3) (Optional) Subject guesses the rule that is used to separate "trin" from "non- trin" sequences. 4) Return to Step (1) • The task continues until the subject guesses the correct rule. P 355, Miyamoto, Winter '09 4 Optional: Class Guesses Sequences 2-4-6 trin 1-1-1 non-trin What is the rule for "trin" versus "non-trin"? P 355, Miyamoto, Winter '09 5 Optional: Class Guesses Sequences 2-4-6 "trin" 1-1-1 "non-trin" Examples of Guesses: 3-6-9 "trin" 5-3-1 "non-trin" 1-1-2 "noln-trin" 2-3-4 "trin" 1-2-3 "trin" 1-3-5 "trin" ......... .......... TRUE RULE: Any increasing sequence of 3 numbers. What is the rule for "trin" versus "non-trin"? P 355, Miyamoto, Winter '09 6 Typical Finding on the 2-4-6 Task • Subjects guess sequences like: o 2-4-6, 10-12-14, (-10)-(-8)-(-6), ... (These are all trins.) Guess rule: Increasing by 2's. Wrong! o 2-6-10, 100-102-104, 80-84-88, etc. (This are all trins.) Guess the rule: Increasing even numbers. Wrong! • The rule that the experimenter is using: The numbers increase from first to last. o E.g., 31-32-298 is a trin. o E.g., 20-25-24 is not a trin. P 355, Miyamoto, Winter '09 7 Typical Finding on the 2-4-6 Task (cont.) • Typical finding: o Subjects consider rules that are too specific. o Subjects propose sequences that are designed to satisfy the subject's current hypothesis....
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This note was uploaded on 10/05/2009 for the course PSYCH 355 taught by Professor Miyamoto during the Winter '08 term at University of Washington.

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lec10-1 - Confirmation Bias and the Four Card Problem...

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