OPIM3000_8 - An decrease in birth rate will decrease...

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Fall 2009 Instructors: Jintae Lee and Jingjing Li
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Causal Loop Diagram(CLD) consists of  __________, ____________,_____________ Each causal links is assigned a polarity, either  ______ or ________ The important loops are highlighted by a loop  identifier with a meaningful loop name, either  _______ or _________.  
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Birth loop Death loop
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Causation vs. Correlation Link polarity Loop polarity Delays Variable names Others Case studies
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Prediction                Explanation
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 A positive link means that if the cause  increases(decreases), the effect                   increases  (decreases) above(below)    _____________________________________ A negative link means that if the cause  increases(decreases), the effect decreases(increases)  below(above)  ______________________________________  An increase in the fractional birth rate will cause the  birth rate to rise?
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Unformatted text preview: An decrease in birth rate will decrease population? Fast way Right way Practice Regulation Birth Rate ? Variable names should be _______or _______ Variable names must have ______________ Choose variables whose normal sense of direction is ________ Find mistakes: Low income High/low birth rate Sanitary condition Feedback from citizens Choose the right differentiation of variables Intermediate variables Choose the right unit of aggregation Individual or state or country Use multiple level CLD to reduce the complexity Make the goals of negative loops explicit Distinguish between actual and perceived conditions Limitations Problem definition: The ant strategy The grasshopper strategy Identifying key variables Developing the reference mode Developing the CLD...
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This note was uploaded on 10/08/2009 for the course BCOR 2200 taught by Professor Tomnelson during the Spring '08 term at Colorado.

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OPIM3000_8 - An decrease in birth rate will decrease...

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