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OPIM3000_8

# OPIM3000_8 - An decrease in birth rate will decrease...

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Fall 2009 Instructors: Jintae Lee and Jingjing Li

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Causal Loop Diagram(CLD) consists of  __________, ____________,_____________ Each causal links is assigned a polarity, either  ______ or ________ The important loops are highlighted by a loop  identifier with a meaningful loop name, either  _______ or _________.
Birth loop Death loop

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Causation vs. Correlation Link polarity Loop polarity Delays Variable names Others Case studies
Prediction                Explanation

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A positive link means that if the cause  increases(decreases), the effect                   increases  (decreases) above(below)    _____________________________________ A negative link means that if the cause  increases(decreases), the effect decreases(increases)  below(above)  ______________________________________  An increase in the fractional birth rate will cause the  birth rate to rise?

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Unformatted text preview: An decrease in birth rate will decrease population? Fast way Right way Practice Regulation Birth Rate ? Variable names should be _______or _______ Variable names must have ______________ Choose variables whose normal sense of direction is ________ Find mistakes: ◦ Low income ◦ High/low birth rate ◦ Sanitary condition ◦ Feedback from citizens Choose the right differentiation of variables ◦ Intermediate variables Choose the right unit of aggregation ◦ Individual or state or country Use multiple level CLD to reduce the complexity Make the goals of negative loops explicit Distinguish between actual and perceived conditions Limitations Problem definition: ◦ The ant strategy ◦ The grasshopper strategy Identifying key variables Developing the reference mode Developing the CLD...
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OPIM3000_8 - An decrease in birth rate will decrease...

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