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Unformatted text preview: P S 121 Lecture_6/3/2009 Office Hours: Thursday 3-4pm, Monday afternoon Nuclear Deter rence Theory: • Deterrence: o o o Maintaining the status quo through coercion Discouraging preventing an action Deterrence is intended to keep the s tatus quo—trying to keep people in t heir place ( telling people not to do something) • Deterrence is achieved in one of two ways o Preventing i t from happening (defense)—people do not attack you because t hey know they cannot succeed o Punishing the offender—they could succeed but the punishment would be worse • Nuclear Deterrence: The Nuclear Revolution o Nuclear weapons represent a revolution in military affairs: An atomic bomb, hydrogen bomb and the ability to deliver it onto your adversary—in t he past a count ry had to be able to fight through another country’s m ilitary. With nuclear weapons you can target their leadership, land etc... o Huge fundamental change—leaders now understand that if an enemy has a n uclear weapon they are in danger o When the US has nuclear weapons and Germany and Japan don’t…we continued to nuke them until they would surrender. The west has always valued individual life—combat fighting in Japan lead to more American deaths—with nuclear weapons less Americans die. By putt ing direct p ressure on population centers with nuclear weapons stopped the war. o Second Revolution—When your enemies/adversaries get nuclear weapons = M utually Assured Destruction • Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)/ Balance of Terror o o o Have to have nuclear weapons Have to be able to deliver them Have to be able to survive an attack against you—ability to retaliate (Second strike capability) o Dilemma: When two states have nuclear weapons and the ability to w ithstand the first strike is it then credible? Optimists v. Pessimists: • • Optimists: The long nuclear peace—waltz Pessimists—safety o o • • Accidents Inadvertent War Morality Stability-Instability Paradox NPT and N MD: ...
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- Spring '08