2.19-3.5lecture

2.19-3.5lecture - Strategic Theories of Democratization...

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Strategic Theories of Democratization: Democracy as A Choice Hypothesis 1: Democracy can occur because of a Stalemate o Example : Hypothesis 2: Peoples Power o Democracy results from active pressure by a democratic opposition, combined with a vulnerable and divided authoritarian elite. The Process of Democratization: (memorize for final) o Step one: most authoritarian regimes have a basic legitimacy problem. o Step two: legitimacy problem grows acute o Step three: These growing legitimacy problems become visible to the authoritarian elites. o Example: The “Mothers of Plaza de Mayo” o Step four: Authoritarian elites are split over how to address the legitimacy problems. o “HARDLINERS” want to solve the problem by repressing the dissenters o “SOFTLINERS” want to solve the problem by loosening some restrictions and letting the dissenters vent. o Step five: If the SOFTLINERS win, the democratic opposition takes this as an opening: o “Resurrection of civil society”—as the costs and risks of protest go down, more people participate in protest. o Democratic elites begin to negotiate with SOFTLINERS regarding conditions of transition.
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Hypothesis 3: “Demonstration Effects” o An event in one place acts as a catalyst for a similar process in another place at approximately the same point in time. [Note that this was NOT the case with South Korea- there were in fact communist /authoritarian nations surrounding it. Pressure came more from economic international pressure. IMF had a huge influence on S.K.- some have argued that the IMF’s pressures were in fact detrimental to the South Korean economy and that in fact their old autocratic system would have continued to be successful- see paper written on South Korea] o “waves” of democratization by region ( this is related to the THIRD WAVE democracy theory developed by political scientists-
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This note was uploaded on 10/12/2009 for the course POLY SCI 147 taught by Professor Staff during the Winter '08 term at UCSB.

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2.19-3.5lecture - Strategic Theories of Democratization...

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