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Ch6.4 - Payoff Table Dull 0-200000-500000-900000 Average 0...

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Payoff Table Dull Average Above Av. Exciting s5 s6 s7 None 0 0 0 0 One -200000 300000 700000 1300000 Two -500000 600000 1200000 1800000 Three -900000 500000 1300000 2200000 d5 d6 d7 d8 Probability 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 RESULTS Criteria Decision Payoff Maximin None 0 Minimax Regret Two 500000 Maximax Three 2200000 Insufficient Reason Two 775000 EV Two 680000 EVPI 170000 Regret Table Dull Average Above Av. Exciting s5 s6 s7 None 0 600000 1300000 2200000 One 200000 300000 600000 900000 Two 500000 0 100000 400000 Three 900000 100000 0 0 d5 d6 d7 d8 Probability 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
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s8 s8
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Bayesian Analysis Indicator 1 Indicator 2 States Prior Conditional Joint Posterior States Prior of Nature Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilites of Nature Probabilities Dull 0.2 0 Dull 0.2 Average 0.4 0 Average 0.4 Above Av. 0.3 0 Above Av. 0.3 Exciting 0.1 0 Exciting 0.1 s5 0 0 s5 0 s6 0 0 s6 0 s7 0 0 s7 0 s8 0 0 s8 0 P(Indicator 1) 0 Indicator 3 Indicator 4 States Prior Conditional Joint Posterior States Prior of Nature Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilites of Nature Probabilities Dull 0.2 0 Dull 0.2 Average 0.4 0 Average 0.4 Above Av. 0.3 0 Above Av. 0.3 Exciting 0.1 0 Exciting 0.1 s5 0 0 s5 0 s6 0 0 s6 0 s7 0 0 s7 0 s8 0 0 s8 0 P(Indicator 3) 0
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Conditional Joint Posterior Probabilities Probabilities Probabilites 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P(Indicator 2) 0 Conditional Joint Posterior Probabilities Probabilities
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  • Spring '09
  • tannous
  • ind., Probabilities Probabilities Probabilites, Posterior Probabilities Probabilities, Nature Dull Average

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