Ch6.23 - 600 450 300 2-1250-25 1200 1050 3-1875-650 575...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–8. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Payoff Table 0 1 2 3 s5 s6 s7 0 0 -150 -300 -450 1 -625 600 450 300 2 -1250 -25 1200 1050 3 -1875 -650 575 1800 d5 d6 d7 d8 Probability 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 RESULTS Criteria Decision Payoff Maximin 0 -450 Minimax Regret 2 1250 Maximax 3 1800 Insufficient Reason 2 243.75 EV 2 312.5 EVPI 587.5 Regret Table 0 1 2 3 s5 s6 s7 0 0 750 1500 2250 1 625 0 750 1500 2 1250 625 0 750 3 1875 1250 625 0 d5 d6 d7 d8 Probability 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
Background image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
s8 s8
Background image of page 2
Bayesian Analysis Indicator 1 Indicator 2 States Prior Conditional Joint Posterior States Prior of Nature Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilites of Nature Probabilities 0 0.2 0 0 0.2 1 0.3 0 1 0.3 2 0.3 0 2 0.3 3 0.2 0 3 0.2 s5 0 0 s5 0 s6 0 0 s6 0 s7 0 0 s7 0 s8 0 0 s8 0 P(Indicator 1) 0 Indicator 3 Indicator 4 States Prior Conditional Joint Posterior States Prior of Nature Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilites of Nature Probabilities 0 0.2 0 0 0.2 1 0.3 0 1 0.3 2 0.3 0 2 0.3 3 0.2 0 3 0.2 s5 0 0 s5 0 s6 0 0 s6 0 s7 0 0 s7 0 s8 0 0 s8 0 P(Indicator 3) 0
Background image of page 3

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Conditional Joint Posterior Probabilities Probabilities Probabilites 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P(Indicator 2) 0 Conditional Joint Posterior Probabilities Probabilities Probabilites 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P(Indicator 4) 0
Background image of page 4
Payoff Table 0 1 2 3 s5 s6 s7 0 0 -150 -300 -450 1 -625
Background image of page 5

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Background image of page 6
Background image of page 7

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Background image of page 8
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Unformatted text preview: 600 450 300 2-1250-25 1200 1050 3-1875-650 575 1800 d5 d6 d7 d8 Prior Prob. 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 Ind. 1 Prob. Ind 2. Prob. Ind. 3 Prob. Ind 4 Prob. RESULTS Prior Ind. 1 Ind. 2 Ind. 3 Ind. 4 optimal payoff 312.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 optimal decision 2 EVSI = EVPI = 587.5 Efficiency= s8 EV(prior) EV(ind. 1) EV(ind. 2) EV(ind. 3) EV(ind. 4)-225 250 312.5-37.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Utility Analysis 1 2 3 s5 s6 s7 s8 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 1 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 2 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 3 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A d5 d6 d7 d8 Probability 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 RESULTS Criteria Decision Value Exp. Utility #N/A #N/A Certain Payoff Utility EU #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A...
View Full Document

Page1 / 8

Ch6.23 - 600 450 300 2-1250-25 1200 1050 3-1875-650 575...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 8. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online