Ch6.28 - Payoff Table 70000 150000 -20000 40000 50000...

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Payoff Table 70000 40000 10000 s4 s5 s6 s7 Introduce 150000 50000 -100000 Do Not Intro. -20000 -20000 -20000 d3 d4 d5 d6 d7 d8 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 RESULTS Criteria Decision Payoff Maximin Do Not Intro. -20000 Minimax Regret Introduce 80000 Maximax Introduce 150000 Insufficient Reason Introduce 33333.33 EV Introduce 25000 EVPI 24000 Regret Table 70000 40000 10000 s4 s5 s6 s7 Introduce 0 0 80000 Do Not Intro. 170000 70000 0 d3 d4 d5 d6 d7 d8 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3
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s8 s8
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Favorable Unfavorable States Prior Conditional Joint Posterior States Prior of Nature Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilites of Nature Probabilities 70000 0.2 0.9 0.18 0.333 70000 0.2 40000 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.556 40000 0.5 10000 0.3 0.2 0.06 0.111 10000 0.3 s4 0 0 0.000 s4 0 s5 0 0 0.000 s5 0 s6 0 0 0.000 s6 0 s7 0 0 0.000 s7 0 s8 0 0 0.000 s8 0 P(Indicator 1) 0.54 Indicator 3 Indicator 4 States Prior Conditional Joint Posterior States Prior of Nature Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilites of Nature Probabilities
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Ch6.28 - Payoff Table 70000 150000 -20000 40000 50000...

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