S09-HW Soln-Ch11 - Chapter 11: Forecasting and Demand...

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Chapter 11: Forecasting and Demand Planning Homework Problems Problem #1: Forecasts and actual sales of portable CD players at Just Say Music are as follows: Month Forecast Actual Sales March 150 170 April 220 229 May 205 192 June 256 271 July 250 238 August 260 255 September 270 290 October 280 279 November 296 301 a. Plot the data and provide insights about the time series. The time series shows an increasing trend. b. What is the forecast for December, using a three-period moving average? December forecast = (290+279+301)/3 = 290 c. What is the forecast for December, using a four-period moving average? December forecast = (255+290+279+301)/4 = 281.25 d. Compute the MAD, MAPE, and MSE for parts b and c and compare your results. 1
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Chapter 11: Forecasting and Demand Planning Homework Problems Month Sales MA(3) MA(4) Error Error ^2 Abs Error Abs Error/Sale Error Error ^2 Abs Error Abs Error/S March 170 April 229 May 192 Jun 271 197.00 74.00 5476.00 74.00 27.31 Jul 238 230.67 215.50 7.33 53.78 7.33 3.08 22.50 506.25 22.50 9.45 Aug 255 233.67 232.50 21.33 455.11 21.33 8.37 22.50 506.25 22.50 8.82 Sep 290 254.67 239.00 35.33 1248.44 35.33 12.18 51.00 2601.00 51.00 17.59 Oct 279 261.00 263.50 18.00 324.00 18.00 6.45 15.50 240.25 15.50 5.56 Nov 301 274.67 265.50 26.33 693.44 26.33 8.75 35.50 1260.25 35.50 11.79 T = 6 T = 5 8250.78 182.33 66.14 5114.00 147.00 53.21 1375.13 30.39 11.02 1022.80 29.40 10.64 MSE MAD MAPE MSE MAD MAPE Problem #2: The president of a small manufacturing firm is concerned about the continual growth in
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S09-HW Soln-Ch11 - Chapter 11: Forecasting and Demand...

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