8 - Decision making - Carter Racing to post before class.pptx - Decision Making Carter Racing Plan for today Proposal Note about next class Carter

8 - Decision making - Carter Racing to post before class.pptx

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Decision Making: Carter Racing
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Plan for today: Proposal Note about next class Carter Racing case Problem solving process
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Decision Making under Uncertainty Carter Racing : Will You Race Or Not?
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Your Decision Should they race? Form groups of 3 Choose roles: John, Paul, or Tom Make a decision
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Your Group’s Decision How many groups decided to race? Not race? Did group decision match individual decision? For groups who decided not to race, Why? For groups who decided to race, Why? How did you arrive at your decision? Individually? In the group?
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Let’s be honest You can NEVER reduce risk to zero I don’t just mean here, I mean in all situations That means the question is ALWAYS: Always, always, always What tradeoffs are we making?
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Let’s be honest We need to make these decisions with our eyes open How? Calculating expected values of decisions is one way What tradeoffs are we making?
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Racing Record Total Races Entered = 24 Races Finished (15/24) = 62.5% 12 in Top 5 (12/24) = 50% 3 not in Top 5 (3/24) = 12.5% Races not Finished (9/24) = 37.5% 7 with blown engine (7/24) = 29.2% 2 for other reasons (2/24) = 8.3%
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Outcome Summary (in millions) Decision Expenses Revenues Value of Outcome RACE Finish in Money (Top five) 0.015 entry 1.04 Goodstone 0.50 oil 1.525
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