Decision Making: Carter Racing

Plan for today:  Proposal  Note about next class  Carter Racing case  Problem solving process

Decision Making under Uncertainty Carter Racing : Will You Race Or Not?

Your Decision  Should they race?  Form groups of 3  Choose roles: John, Paul, or Tom  Make a decision

Your Group’s Decision  How many groups decided to race? Not race?  Did group decision match individual decision?  For groups who decided not to race, Why?  For groups who decided to race, Why?  How did you arrive at your decision?  Individually?  In the group?

Let’s be honest  You can NEVER reduce risk to zero  I don’t just mean here, I mean in all situations  That means the question is ALWAYS:  Always, always, always What tradeoffs are we making?

Let’s be honest  We need to make these decisions with our eyes open  How?  Calculating expected values of decisions is one way What tradeoffs are we making?

Racing Record  Total Races Entered = 24  Races Finished (15/24) = 62.5%  12 in Top 5 (12/24) = 50%  3 not in Top 5 (3/24) = 12.5%  Races not Finished (9/24) = 37.5%  7 with blown engine (7/24) = 29.2%  2 for other reasons (2/24) = 8.3%