notes2 - 1 Probability A CM when operated produces an...

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1 Probability A CM, when operated, produces an outcome. The sample space is the collection of all possible outcomes of the CM. An event is any collection of outcomes. Before the CM is operated, the probability of the event A , denoted by P ( A ) , is a number that measures the likelihood that A will occur. How are probabilities assigned to events? If we assume the ELC, then each possible outcome is equally likely to occur. If we assume the ELC, then we assign probabilities to events as follows. For any event A , P ( A ) = The number of outcomes in A The number of outcomes in S . If we do not assume the ELC, there are two possibilities. 1. Suppose that the sample space is finite and consists of k possible outcomes: 1 , 2 ,...k . The probability of outcome j is denoted by p j . Each p j 0 and they sum to one. 2. Suppose that the sample space is an infinite sequence and consists of possible outcomes: 0 , 1 , 2 ,... . The probability of outcome j is denoted by p j . Each p j 0 and they sum to one. If A and B are events, then (A or B) is the event that contains all elements that are in A and/or B; (AB) is the event that contains all elements that are in both A and B. Two events, A and B, are called disjoint or mutually exclusive if they have no elements in common; in other words, if AB is the empty set. Rules of Probability 1. The probability of the sample space equals 1. 2. For any event A , 0 P ( A ) 1 . 3. If A and B are disjoint events, then P ( A or B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) . 4. P ( A c ) = 1 P ( A ) . 5. If A is a subset of B , then P ( A ) P ( B ) . 6. For any events A and B , P ( A or B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) P ( AB ) . 2 Trials Consider repeated operations of a CM. Each operation is called a trial and yields the value of a random variable. The random variables are denoted by X 1 for the first trial, X 2 for the second trial, and so on. Trials are i.i.d. if, and only if, the X i ’s all have the same probability distribution 1 (i.d.) and they are independent. The major consequence of independence is the multiplication rule. For example,

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This note was uploaded on 10/23/2009 for the course STAT STATS 371 taught by Professor Professorwardrop during the Fall '09 term at University of Wisconsin.

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notes2 - 1 Probability A CM when operated produces an...

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