deal2 - 1 Lets Make a Deal. Years ago in America, there was...

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1 Let’s Make a Deal. Years ago in America, there was a wildly popular game show on TV called Let’s Make a Deal with host Monty Hall. If you have seen this show, no description is needed; if you have never seen it, no accurate description is believable. One of the games went as follows. Monty would be among the audience, questioning his current contestant. On the stage were three ‘doors’ or ‘curtains,’ labeled 1, 2 and 3. Monty would state, “Behind one door is a brand new car, but behind each of the other two doors is a goat.” (Note: For the sake of this discussion, a goat is a gag gift of no value while a car has immense value to the contestant.) “Select a door,” Monty continued, “and win the prize behind it.” At this point, the contestant would select a door. For sake of this discussion, suppose that the contestant selects door 1. Now you might guess that door 1 would be opened and the contestant would leave with the gift revealed. But that would be wrong. Instead, Monty would have one of the remaining doors opened, let’s say door 3, and behind the door is revealed a goat. Monty would then say to the contestant, “You may have the prize behind door 1 or you may switch and take the prize behind door 2. What will you do? Stay or switch?” Since 1986 (this and the following biographical info are taken from Wikipedia), Marilyn vos Savant has written a column, called Ask Marilyn that appears in Parade magazine. Her credentials for having a column includes that she was listed in the Guinness Book of World Records under highest IQ. In addition, I have read her column more than a few times and have found her to be clever and entertaining. In September, 1990, Marilyn analyzed the question I posed above. She stated that the better strategy is to switch. Many persons, including a number of math professors, wrote that she was wrong. In particular, the math professors stated that there was no advantage to either switching or staying. In this presentation, I will take the math professors’ advice to be to stay. They can’t possibly object to my doing this b/c their position is that it does not matter what the contestant
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This note was uploaded on 10/23/2009 for the course STAT STATS 371 taught by Professor Professorwardrop during the Fall '09 term at Wisconsin.

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deal2 - 1 Lets Make a Deal. Years ago in America, there was...

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