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roubini my part

roubini my part - Provide forecasts for each of the...

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Provide forecasts for each of the following variables with a detailed explanation following each number that explains how and why you chose the number. 1. Real GDP growth for 2009 Quarters III and IV - SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). The US economy contraction that began in December 2007 has been the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. In the second half of 2008, failure of Lehmann Brothers was a further confirmation of the massive financial instability this country was going through. The financial crisis led to an upsurge in unemployment rate, which peaked at 9.8% in September of this year. The economy shrank as the GDP declined by 5.50% in the 4 th quarter of 2008 and 6.40% in the first quarter of 2009. Furthermore, the world economy saw severe tightening of exports and international trade collapsed. Moving into the 20 th month of deep recession, things seem more favorable as the supply side conditions improve a bit with a slowing run off inventory, export growth, less negative industrial production, and strengthening federal government purchases due to the fiscal stimulus package. Federal reserve chairman Ben S. Bernanke at the Brookings Institution in Washington said that, “Even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time.” This reflects that even though economic activity remains weak and financial conditions remain stressed there are signs of improvement. Based on
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these reports and the Real GDP decline contracting to 1.0% in the second quarter of
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